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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

El golpe avisa—the blow warns
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Aug 2025

Q2 2025 showed mixed signals of economic recovery, supporting the official GDP growth rate of 3.5% for this year. Non-oil exports registered growth of 5.6% q/q, although bananas and natural flowers showed declines of 26.8% and 18.5%, respectively. Tariffs of 15% imposed by the US on Ecuador will ...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai’s Q1 GDP ahead of Bahrain's, $11bn Jafurah deal, PIF’s assets pass $0.9trn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Aug 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil awaited the Trump-Putin meeting. A global plastics treaty, which threatened demand, collapsed. * The UAE retained top place globally in greenfield FDI attractiveness; Bahrain and Qatar improved. * Saudi manufacturing ...

A brief macro update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2025

As our weekly report is on its usual holiday till September, we thought a very quick update on the past week’s developments could be useful, hence this post. In a nutshell, growth was likely stagnant in the second quarter, the CBRT Survey now places the policy rate at 35% by the end of this year,...

Justice Moraes requested that a trial date be set for Bolsonaro’s case, Motta said the bill on the income tax exemption could go to the floor in the coming days, and a new party federation may be announced next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Aug 2025

Yesterday, August 14, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice Cristiano Zanin, president of the Court’s First Panel, set a trial date for former President Jair Bolsonaro and other defendants accused of participating in an attempted coup following the 2022 el...

Economy decelerates in search of new growth drivers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025

Rosstat reported that in 2H25, GDP grew by 1.1% y-o-y, and the figure was even less impressive than the shocking 1.4% y-o-y growth in 1Q25. It looks as though the economy grew by 1.2-1.3% y-o-y in 1H25 with diminishing chances of growing above 2.0% this year. Moreover, one cannot rule out a furth...

Economic growth accelerates
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Aug 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.2% y-o-y and in July economic growth accelerated as the Bureau also reported that in 7M25, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for economic activity that covers over 60% of total production of goods and servi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How much time will it take to build a functioning TRIPP?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Aug 2025

The various geopolitical considerations surrounding the Washington Summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now been well analyzed in full detail. One particular (technical) consideration that has captured my attention has, however, been given virtually no attention by experts. It relates to th...

July CPI preview: inflation to remain above target, Gaza operation endangers rate-cut prospects
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025

Tomorrow (Friday) we will get July’s CPI print, and we will be watching it closely. We expect a 0.3%-0.4% monthly increase, which would keep annual inflation at around 3.1%, still above the Bank of Israel’s 1%-3% target range. July is typically a low-to-moderate CPI month, with an average monthly...

President Lula announced countermeasures for U.S. tariffs, yesterday was the deadline for a statement from those involved in the coup d’etat case, and the STF upheld the validity of the Cide
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Aug 2025

Yesterday, one week after the United States began enforcing tariffs on Brazilian products, President Lula (PT) signed a provisional measure (MP) establishing protection measures for Brazilian companies affected by Donald Trump’s decision. Yesterday marked the deadline for final statements from me...

Inflation Report: First impressions
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025

The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year today with a presentation, as usual, by Governor Karahan. Importantly, the Bank revised the framework through which medium-term forecasts are presented or communicated. Under the new approach, the Bank will separately announce “forecasts,” ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025

The Russian markets turned into a moderately positive mood after the announcement of the US-Russia summit in Alaska. Despite that investors remain skeptical regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine in the near term, some of them hope for a kind of progress in bilateral relations between Washington and Mo...

Lula should announce countermeasures for U.S. tariffs today, the Senate will read the reports regarding appointments to regulatory agencies, and the STF may decide on the legality of charging Cide on international remittances
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2025

President Lula will attend a ceremony at the Planalto Palace this morning to sign a provisional measure aimed at reducing the impact of the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports. With confirmation hearings for appointees to regulatory agencies scheduled for next Tuesday (Au...

Foreign Affairs: Victory in the North, Trouble in the South
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2025

Domestic politics is in gestation, as parties represented in the Grand Assembly ex-IYIP (centre-right nationalist) deliberate how rehabilitation of PKK militants and some of the grievances of Turkey’s Kurds can be resolved. The Peace Commission will submit draft bills to the GA when it reconvenes...

Chartbook and economic review
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Aug 2025 · 1 response

This chartbook and economic review provides a snapshot of the GCC across 17 slides. It starts with an overview of key themes impacting the region in recent months—such as tariffs, oil market trends and dollar weakness. There are comparative graphs of some of the key economic and market indicators...

The government may announce countermeasures for U.S. tariffs today, Haddad’s meeting with the U.S. Treasury Secretary was canceled, and the Senate will hold confirmation hearings for appointees to regulatory agencies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2025

The government may announce today a package of measures to mitigate the impact of the 50% tariff hike the United States has imposed on Brazilian exports. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had been scheduled to hold a virtual meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this Wednesday, but it...

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