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Politics: New Electoral Reform proposal—what is President Sheinbaum's "Plan B" about?
MEXICO · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Following the rejection of President Sheinbaum’s initial constitutional reform on electoral matters—opposed by her allies PT and PVEM, who feared severe losses in funding and congressional seats—she submitted “Plan B” to the Senate last week. This more limited proposal seeks to “make democracy ch...

Truckers risk on the radar and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

The Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) may issue a position on a request for house arrest for former President Jair Bolsonaro. The PSD is expected to define its presidential candidate. On Friday, Confaz will discuss reducing the ICMS tax on diesel imports. This is the final week of activity f...

Facing the US, Colombia and Iran
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Ever since the beginning of this year, Ecuador's external sector has been the epicenter of both good news and difficult news. In the good news, as of March 13 the government has a TRA (Trade Reconciliation Agreement) with the United States that could bring new revenues of approximately $1200 mill...

Fiscal impact of the oil shock
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

The increase in oil prices triggered by the conflict in Iran has significant fiscal repercussions for Brazil, given the weight of the sector in the economy. The revenue impacts occur mainly through royalties and special participation charges on oil exploration, through corporate taxes on the sect...

Dominican government reiterates readiness to face the impact of the war with Iran, while warning that sacrifices will be necessary
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 23 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Yesterday, President Luis Abinader addressed the nation to reiterate the main points discussed at the Council of Government meeting on March 19. He noted that the war with Iran represents a significant external shock for the Dominican economy, given that the country is a net importer of energy. I...

The PGR is expected to issue an opinion on Bolsonaro’s request for house arrest, this is the final week of activity for the INSS CPMI, and the PSD may select its presidential pre-candidate tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Justice Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) requested on Friday that the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) issue an opinion on the request for house arrest filed by former President Jair Bolsonaro’s legal team. The justice did not set a deadline for the PGR’s response, whi...

Balancing growth, inflation and external risks, amid geopolitical uncertainty
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Mar 2026

Macroeconomic indicators as of February suggest that the Dominican economy is gradually recovering from its weak 2025 performance, when growth fell to one of its lowest levels of the past three decades. Economic activity expanded by 3.5% y/y in January 2026, while inflation eased to 4.67% y/y ...

Iran War Days 22–23: Power plants threatened, nuclear sites hit, Iran oil sanctions eased
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Mar 2026

Highlights The war escalated further over the weekend. Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Hormuz is not reopened, and Iran threatened a tit-for-tat response. Natanz nuclear plant was struck again and Iran targeted Israel’s nuclear facility in Dimona for the first time. Iran f...

Too many known unknowns
TURKEY · Report · 22 Mar 2026

At the end of the third week of the Iran War or Gulf Crisis, its expansion, damage to supply changes and neighboring economies have become devastating. Our job is to make predictions about the Turkish economy and politics, but without understanding how long the war might last, what its permanent ...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatari LNG damaged, Brent rises above $110, Saudi Red Sea exports pick up
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent rose above $110 after Israel bombed an Iranian gas field and Iran hit the Qatari side of the field. * Qatar says 17% of its LNG will be offline for 3-5 years and its expansion could be delayed by a year. * There was...

Israel’s economy under war: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, March 20, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Israel struck major energy infrastructure in Iran, including the South Pars gas field, and Iran retaliated by targeting energy facilities in Qatar and Israel, including refineries. At the same time, Iran continues to launch limited, but more advanced missiles, creating repeated dis...

NBU holds rate at 15% as Iran-driven risks mount
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

The NBU Board held its prime rate at 15.0%, starting from March 20th. The decision was a notable shift in tone from the February communication, driven primarily by the spike in energy prices following the ‘Epic Fury’ operation in Iran, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new IMF program. The N...

Haddad has departed from the Ministry of Finance, Vorcaro has signed a confidentiality agreement with the authorities, and the STF begins adjudication of the case filed by the PT against the privatization of Sabesp
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Mar 2026

The departure of Fernando Haddad from the Ministry of Finance was published in the Federal Official Gazette. Dario Durigan, who had been serving as Executive Secretary, has been appointed minister. Former banker Daniel Vorcaro has signed a confidentiality agreement with the authorities involved i...

Webinar replay - Oil Markets 2026+: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Dynamics Beyond the Glut
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2026

As geopolitics overshadow supply in Venezuela, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan, OPEC+ looks towards its second decade amidst an oil glut. What key local developments should market participants focus on to make sense of the oil market outlook in 2026 and beyond? Could Kazakhstan's chronic overprod...

Tax revenues soar in 2M26 amid VAT reform
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

In 2M26, the republican budget posted a small deficit of about KZT0.9 trln while the full year deficit was targeted at KZT4.6 trln. The 2M26 deficit appeared small, not least because expenditures lagged as about KZT0.9 trln was left unallocated. Hence, in 2M26, expenditures accounted for 14.3% of...

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