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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Deficit narrows in 2025 under baseline scenario, but surges if Gaza conflict escalates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a deficit of NIS 13 billion ($3.5 billion) in March. The trailing 12-month (TTM) budget deficit declined to 5.2% of GDP, down from 5.3% in February, 5.8% in January, 6.9% in December, and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. In the fir...

Good news on inflation at last: inflation fell more than expected in March
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.7% yoy, down from 5.6% yoy in February, core inflation was 0.3% mom, 5.7%, down from 6.2% yoy, non-fuel inflation was 0.3% mom, 5.2% yoy, down from 5.6% yoy:Note: year-on-year changes in percent; Sources: KSH, own estimatesImportantly, analysts expected the headlin...

Lewandowski will submit a PEC on public security today, the opposition is pushing for amnesty for those involved in the January 8 attacks, and Justice Fux has called for a review of the charges against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2025

Today, the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski, will present a Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) to Congress regarding public security. The proposal expands the federal government's powers and creates a mandatory fund to finance security activities. The opposition i...

Israel keeps rate at 4.5% as BoI highlights global and domestic risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Apr 2025

Policy rate held steady for ninth consecutive meeting The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% on April 7th, marking the ninth consecutive decision to maintain the current level. The move was widely expected by markets. The Monetary Committee adopted a slightly dovish...

Economics: The General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria for 2025-2026 retain the optimism of previous years
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2025

As has become customary, the government’s latest policy pre-criteria are marked by excess optimism. The Pre-General Economic Policy Criteria text the Ministry of Finance sent Congress last week, which ushers in the budgeting process of Federal Public Administration entities, include revised macro...

Consequences of Trump's tariff surge and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The Special Committee in the Lower House that will analyze the bill on income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month may be established. In the Senate, the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) may approve the work plan for the bill that regulates the Tax Reform Managem...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025

OVERVIEW ROUGH SEAS DEMAND A GOOD CAPTAIN The seismic effects triggered by Trump’s actions will still cause considerable damage until a new equilibrium can be reached. From tariffs calculated “on the back of the envelope” to the systematic assault on democratic institutions, the country is...

Politics: Radical teachers' struggle puts Sheinbaum government on the spot
MEXICO · Report · 07 Apr 2025

While President Claudia Sheinbaum has been largely successful in curbing the impact of social protests, the radical dissident teachers’ movement is giving her a run for her money. The official National Teachers Union (SNTE), the largest labor union in Mexico and Latin America, despite its past af...

Cherries, tourists, tariffs and expectations
CHILE · Report · 07 Apr 2025

A breeze of optimism has swept across Chile. According to the national accounts, GDP grew by 2.6% in 2024. Still, we are not revising our baseline 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 just yet. Several factors prompt caution. First, statistical distortions have been at work. Second, some temporary dri...

Sailing into a stormy world
INDIA · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The India-US goods trade is not very large, and while the 26% tariff will of course hurt, the damage in and of itself is relatively modest. The really important questions lie beyond. A recession in the US and difficulties in the world economy will weigh upon Indian growth. If the trade war get...

Health tax on entrepreneurs lowered (or not). MPC: Has Glapiński just changed his view?
POLAND · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025

News on the health tax After a lengthy disagreement amongst the coalition members (with the left opposing the law), the parliament has proposed a law to lower the health tax on the self-employed. Starting January 1, 2026, the new system will consist of flat-rate and percentage-based parts. The fl...

Both retail sales and industrial output followed their respective trends in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Apr 2025

Retail sales fell by 0.6% mom, but it grew by 3.3% yoy, in volume terms, in February. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100, source: KSH), suggests that it was a correction after January's outstandingly robust result, back to an otherwise significantly increasing trend: So, the trend of strengthen...

Bolsonaro’s demonstration saw a significant turnout, the income tax bill should be analyzed in the Special Committee this week, and the Senate may vote on the bill concerning persistent tax debtors
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Apr 2025

The demonstration called by former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo (SP) saw a significant turnout. It is estimated that around 55,000 people attended the political event. This week, the Special Committee is expected to be set up to analyze the bill that exempts indi...

Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025

The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...

Seven likely outcomes in China from the Trump tariffs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2025

China struck back against the new tariffs with a significant 34 percent tariff on US goods, set to take effect on April 10. This is a much broader attack on the US than China engaged in during the first Trump Administration. China also restricted exports of seven types of rare earth metals, added...

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