Steady growth, accelerating industry, a widening fiscal premium, and a right wing that does not need to unite

POLAND - Report 09 Sep 2026 by Jan Hagemejer

Poland's economy shows a healthier growth mix, tilting toward investment and away from public consumption, even as inflation, unemployment, and fiscal risk all move the wrong way. Inflation has stopped falling mainly due to fuel subsidy withdrawal and a VAT reversion, a level shift that will keep readings elevated into autumn even as the underlying core trend quietly accelerates beneath a still-favorable annual rate. The real story is fiscal: a record budget deficit is keeping the shortfall more than double the EU reference level, and Poland's borrowing costs have risen well above regional peers, reflecting growing distrust in the country's trajectory rather than shared regional sentiment. Politically, the governing coalition is eroding without a consolidated opposition able to capitalize on it, since support has fragmented across multiple right-wing parties too distrustful of one another to govern together despite their combined strength.

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