GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Sup...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Too hot to handle? Mapping overheating risks in Eurasia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Evaluating the medium-term government programs in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has brought into sharper focus the very high growth rates in these economies, with neighboring Kyrgyzstan comfortably beating even those ambitious 7-8% plus growth projections. A question that I have posed for myself in r...

Current account surplus switches to a deficit in Q2-2026

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Sep 2026

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) shows that South Africa’s current account of the balance of payments deteriorated markedly during the second quarter of 2026, switching from a surplus of R181.6 billion in the first quarter to a deficit of R205.5 billion. As a percentage of G...

Miserable new world

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026

The 2014-2016 recession is different from previous downturns due to the delay in the recovery and by the persistent departure from the pre-crisis path. Several counterfactuals, obtained using HP and Kalman filters, indicate that 2026 GDP would be, depending on the case, 15% to 27% below the level...

MPC: gearing up for an October cut?

TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2026

As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% today. The statement was not very different either, in which the Bank reiterated the ongoing demand weakness and acknowledged that “elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments pose an upward risk to the inflation outlook.”

Justice Fachin called a session for next week to decide on the latest Banco Master development, the government is trying to lower gas prices, and Lula signs into law the measure eliminating the so-called “blouse import tax”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin has called an extraordinary session for next Tuesday, September 15, for the full Court to decide on a Federal Police report that identifies Justice Alexandre de Moraes as the interlocutor of former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco M...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Sep 2026

Aug 27 Legal suite: The court in Kazakhstan allowed Ukrainian Naftogaz to appeal the cancellation of the decision to recover $1.4 bln from Gazprom. Aug 28 KMG: The company will place "Dimsum" bonds worth CNY 3.5 bln in early September. Energy ministry: Oil production has been restored in Kazakhst...

Federal budget deficit narrows in August despite weak oil-and-gas revenue flow.

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2026

Minfin reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R6.0 trln in 8M26, down 16.7% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues rose 18.1% y-o-y to R20.9 trln. The 2026 targets are R8.9 trln for O&G and R31.4 trln for non-O&G revenues. By August, O&G revenue collection had reached only 56.2% of the annual pl...

The latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff, Chief Justice Fachin gave Justice Mendonça 72 hours to respond to a request from the AGU, and Fachin may take over the Banco Master case

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2026

Yesterday, a voting-intention poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula (PT) in a runoff, with 46% to 45%, according to Nexus/BTG Pactual. The erosion in support is not driven solely by the institutional issues surrounding the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The econo...

South Africa’s growth momentum falters in Q2-2026

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Sep 2026

South Africa’s quarter-on-quarter real GDP declined by 0.2% during the second quarter of 2026, following the first quarter’s 0.4% q/q increase, bringing an end to six consecutive quarters of positive growth. On an annual basis, the economy was still 0.9% larger than in the second quarter of 2025,...

Unemployment surges as growth loses momentum

PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2026

The July 2026 labor-market data present a seemingly reassuring picture: employment remains relatively strong and unemployment is still contained. Yet beneath the headline numbers are signs that deserve closer attention. The labor market does not operate in isolation; it reflects the strength, com...

Steady growth, accelerating industry, a widening fiscal premium, and a right wing that does not need to unite

POLAND · Report · 09 Sep 2026

Poland's economy shows a healthier growth mix, tilting toward investment and away from public consumption, even as inflation, unemployment, and fiscal risk all move the wrong way. Inflation has stopped falling mainly due to fuel subsidy withdrawal and a VAT reversion, a level shift that will keep...

Strong tax revenues keep the fiscal deficit low in August, but defense spending could push it higher by year-end

ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Sep 2026

Israel’s fiscal data for August continued to tell a positive story. Tax revenues continued to show strong and surprisingly positive growth, while the fiscal deficit remained well below earlier expectations. The numbers show a 12-month rolling fiscal deficit of 3.2% of GDP in September 2025-August...

The presidential race with no clear favorite and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026

The crisis at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) continues. Statements from the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) and Justice André Mendonça to Justice Edson Fachin are expected regarding Mendonça’s conduct in the Banco Master case. Mendonça may also approve a plea bargain related to "Dark Hors...

Economics: Financing to the non-financial private sector weakens in the second quarter of 2026

MEXICO · Report · 08 Sep 2026

Financing to the non-financial private sector slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2026, in both its domestic and external components. Consumer credit continues to post high growth rates, but that behavior stems mainly from the banking penetration of segments previously served by SOFOMES and f...