Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Lula in the latest polls on the runoff, the STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75% next week

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 11 Sep 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Supreme Federal Court (STF) session scheduled for Tuesday, when the Court is expected to decide whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes based on a Federal Police report that identified an alleged connection between him and jailed former banker Daniel Vorcaro. On the economic front, attention will focus on the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting to determine the benchmark interest rate, currently at 14% per year. The expectation is for a cut to 13.75%.

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