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Even though Congress approved the 2027 budget before the constitutional deadline (October 20th), a serious procedural mistake was made. The floor of the House approved a proposition that was not considered by the floor of the Senate, a situation that would have required an additional step: delega...

Lula calls on Flávio Bolsonaro to disclose his confidential records, the Federal Police requested more time to investigate Lula’s son, and Lula is expected to sign into the law a bill forgiving debts of MEIs

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Oct 2026

President Lula sharpened his rhetoric in the final stretch of the campaign. Yesterday, Lula said that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) should only be allowed to take part in the TV Globo debate if he presents a document authorizing the disclosure of his confidential records. The Federal Police (PF) asked th...

An uncertain electoral outlook given Noboa’s hits and misses

ECUADOR · Forecast · 21 Oct 2026

We recognize that President Noboa inherited a complex situation when he assumed his office in 2023. This included an unstable and vulnerable fiscal situation that endangered dollarization and an escalation in violence and organized crime that Ecuador had never before witnessed in its history. ...

No base rate change yesterday, new details revealed on the draft budget

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2026

Yesterday's Monetary Council meeting and Mr. Varga's post-meeting presentation almost became non-events, against the backdrop of the government's simultaneous presentation of the 2027 budget, consisting of an unusually long and detailed parliamentary speech by the Prime Minister two days ago, and...

Exchange rate management near the nominal centenary threshold

INDIA · Report · 21 Oct 2026

Across the summer and autumn of 2026, Indian macroeconomic management has oriented itself around a nominal exchange rate focal point of Rs 100 to the US dollar. The policy response transitioned from balance-sheet liability engineering to micro-level market impediments and tighter domestic liquid...

Disinflation put to the test

VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Oct 2026

September showed that monetary restraint can contain exchange rate pressures even as the official supply of foreign currency declines. Monthly inflation slid to 8.4 percent from 8.9 percent in August, as slower public spending growth and tighter monetary conditions curbed demand for dollars and n...

The limits of disinflation and the challenge of growth with one year to the 2027 presidential election

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Oct 2026

With one year remaining until the presidential election on October 24, 2027, and roughly ten months until the mandatory primary elections (PASO) that will define party candidates, the window to reverse the modest results of the economic program—in terms of activity and inflation—is narrow. The go...

Another rate hike? The case for 50 basis points

PHILIPPINES · Report · 20 Oct 2026

The Philippine economy faces a difficult policy dilemma as inflationary pressures intensify even as economic activity remains weak. Headline inflation has accelerated, while core inflation has risen from 2.4% in the first nine months of 2025 to 3.8% in the same period of 2026, suggesting that pri...

Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro has a slight advantage ahead of the runoff, activities in Congress will be limited this week, and the government will rely on executive action

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Oct 2026

Six days before the runoff, polls released yesterday (Oct. 19) show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead, although the race has tightened compared with the immediate aftermath of the first round. Flávio continues to hold a slight edge, but the election remains open. Rejection rates for both candidates are...

Politics moves to the forefront; economy to decelerate in Q4 2026; BCRP to stand pat in 2027

PERU · Forecast · 20 Oct 2026

In this forecast report, we discuss the new political environment, Peru’s economic performance amid the El Niño weather shock and our interest rate forecasts. In politics, the focus has turned to congressional approval of the government’s request for delegated legislative faculties, as well as ...

Weekly Report - October 19, 2026: Election polls point to a dead heat between the two blocs; inflation surprises to the downside; BoI expected to hold rates

ISRAEL · Report · 19 Oct 2026

With Israel's October 27 election just eight days away, polls continue to point to a political deadlock, with neither bloc securing a majority. Opposition parties are preparing to advance legislation through the Knesset after the vote, hoping to attract another party to a new coalition or trigger...

Good news for today: fiscal deficit target set at 4.9% GDP, retail margin caps will be lifted

HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2026

PM Magyar presented the Tisza's 2027 government budget in a two-hour parliamentary speech this afternoon, which he himself previewed the other day as one of his most important public appearances so far.Starting with the main point, the deficit target has been set at 4.9% of GDP, following the ame...

The final stretch and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

This is the final week of campaigning ahead of the runoff election on October 25. On Friday, October 23, TV Globo will host a debate featuring Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. A series of voting intention polls are expected to be released throughout the week. The Senate may vote on the constitutional a...

The political cycle inversion exacts its (steep) price

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

Lula faces an unfavorable scenario in his bid for re-election. The economy is slowing down, despite the enormous stimuli, and inflation remains high, while billions are spent by the government to artificially contain fuel prices. Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro in a narrow lead, which could be larger...

Flávio Bolsonaro performed slightly better than Lula in yesterday’s debate, this is the final week of campaigning before the runoff on Sunday, and the Senate may vote on the Public Security PEC

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

In yesterday’s debate (Oct. 18) on TV Bandeirantes, the first of the runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) performed slightly better than Lula (PT). He successfully steered the confrontation toward public security, corruption, and food prices—issues that are priorities for voters and areas of vulnerabili...