Economic growth accelerates

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 15 Aug 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1H25 the nation’s GDP grew by 6.2% y-o-y and in July economic growth accelerated as the Bureau also reported that in 7M25, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for economic activity that covers over 60% of total production of goods and services) grew by unprecedented 9.3% y-o-y (versus 9.0% y-o-y in 1H25). It was the fastest growth of this indicator on record. Previous record growth (9.2% y-o-y) was reported in 7M10, i.e., fifteen years ago, amid a 3.9% y-o-y contraction in 7M09. So far, the trend looks upward and one cannot rule out that growth numbers may be even higher in the next few months.Transportation and warehousing appeared to be the fastest growing segment as it grew by 22.5% y-o-y in 7M25. Construction was up by 18.5%, trade grew by 8.6%, and industry delivered 6.9% (also y-o-y in 7M25). The mining segment of the industry grew by 8.5% y-o-y amid increased oil production. Growth in manufacturing continued to accelerate and delivered 9.6% y-o-y growth in July alone that moved the 7M25 tally up to 6.1% y-o-y. Machinery production was up y-o-y by 31.4% and 14.0% in July and 7M25. Computers/electronics and car production segments were among the leaders. The former grew y-o-y by 34.4% and 57.7% in July and 7M25. The same numbers for car production were also impressive (57.6% and 18.6%). We need to digest the recently published statistics to provide a more detailed overview of the Kazakh current economic trends and the outlook. It appears that in addition to rapidly expanding household credit, FDI has had a major impact on the country’s economic situation this year. The key question is about the sustainabilit...