Foreign Affairs: Victory in the North, Trouble in the South

TURKEY - In Brief 12 Aug 2025 by Atilla Yesilada
Domestic politics is in gestation, as parties represented in the Grand Assembly ex-IYIP (centre-right nationalist) deliberate how rehabilitation of PKK militants and some of the grievances of Turkey’s Kurds can be resolved. The Peace Commission will submit draft bills to the GA when it reconvenes in October. While I missed my contribution to the Quarterly (where Murat pitched in for me very successfully), I can’t find any reason to significantly alter my rather pessimistic base-case scenario of Peace with Kurds failing, no constitutional talks and Erdogan not holding elections until he believes he can win a third time. Abroad though; there are two significant developments, the first of which can make a growing contribution to a sexy Turkey story, while handling the second will be possible but highly unpleasant. Specifically, a peace protocol signed under the gleaming eyes of President Trump between Armenia and Azerbaijan also secured the Zengezur Corridor connecting Central Asia to Turkey through Armenian territory. In Syria, Syrian Kurds (SDF) are clashing at several localities with HTS forces, as the former refuses to join the national government or the army, holding out for regional autonomy or better representation at the Constitutional Advisory Board. Peace in South Caucasus: Turkey and US are big winners “Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a peace agreement formally ending almost 40 years of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Brokered by US President Donald Trump, the deal reopens key transportation routes, deepens bilateral cooperation with Washington, and — crucially — establishes a new transit corridor connecting...

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