TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How much time will it take to build a functioning TRIPP?
The various geopolitical considerations surrounding the Washington Summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now been well analyzed in full detail. One particular (technical) consideration that has captured my attention has, however, been given virtually no attention by experts. It relates to the so-called "TRIPP", or the Zangezur Corridor, which Armenia (and the U.S.) are supposed to build in the Syunik region.
The issue is that due to geopolitical tensions and conflict, there is no current operating road or rail connection between Aghbend (in Azerbaijan) and Nakhchivan via Armenia. The Zangezur range is mountainous, with heights of up to 2500 meters, and is blanketed with long, steep gorges. Therefore, any new road or rail would probably need a significant amount of bridges and tunnels to maintain reasonable grades for the right-of-way.
My analysis suggests that the existing E002 highway, while still having segments that are unpaved and gravel-covered, may only need rehabilitation to provide some basic road corridor between Azerbaijan proper and Nakhchivan. Using some World Bank estimates for the standard time of rehabilitating non-greenfield roads in Armenia yields a delivery time of at least one year. A more complex and fully upgraded route involving new mountain bypasses/tunnels could stretch to 2–4+ years. A railroad connection would probably take at least 3 years to complete given that this endeavor would qualify as a greenfield investment due to the almost complete destruction of the Soviet-era railway.
The current Azerbaijani experience supports these estimates as Baku has been constructing its road and railway portions of the route since early 2021. While the Azerbaijani segment is longer, its terrain is less challenging from an engineering perspective. As of now, Azerbaijan has completed 93 percent of the road and 63 percent of the railroad leading up to the border with Armenia in the south, where the TRIPP itself should start.
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