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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Lula should announce countermeasures for U.S. tariffs today, the Senate will read the reports regarding appointments to regulatory agencies, and the STF may decide on the legality of charging Cide on international remittances
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Aug 2025

President Lula will attend a ceremony at the Planalto Palace this morning to sign a provisional measure aimed at reducing the impact of the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports. With confirmation hearings for appointees to regulatory agencies scheduled for next Tuesday (Au...

Foreign Affairs: Victory in the North, Trouble in the South
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Aug 2025

Domestic politics is in gestation, as parties represented in the Grand Assembly ex-IYIP (centre-right nationalist) deliberate how rehabilitation of PKK militants and some of the grievances of Turkey’s Kurds can be resolved. The Peace Commission will submit draft bills to the GA when it reconvenes...

Chartbook and economic review
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Aug 2025 · 1 response

This chartbook and economic review provides a snapshot of the GCC across 17 slides. It starts with an overview of key themes impacting the region in recent months—such as tariffs, oil market trends and dollar weakness. There are comparative graphs of some of the key economic and market indicators...

The government may announce countermeasures for U.S. tariffs today, Haddad’s meeting with the U.S. Treasury Secretary was canceled, and the Senate will hold confirmation hearings for appointees to regulatory agencies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2025

The government may announce today a package of measures to mitigate the impact of the 50% tariff hike the United States has imposed on Brazilian exports. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had been scheduled to hold a virtual meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this Wednesday, but it...

Kazakhstan macro: the tenge needs to weaken further
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Aug 2025

In its most recent monthly statement on the FX market (published on August 1) the National Bank of Kazakhstan mentioned that trading activity increased last month and the tenge weakened by 4%. Total trade volume reached $5.7 bln, of which $0.7 bln was accounted for by FX sales from the National F...

Economics: ENIGH 2024—higher labor income and government transfers; less targeting and effectiveness of social spending
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2025

The results of the 2024 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures (ENIGH) show significant increases in current household income across all deciles, due to growth in labor income and government transfers. As we have noted in previous reports, both the increase in the minimum wage and t...

Israel’s July fiscal data: deficit narrows, but risks rise from Gaza takeover plan
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Aug 2025

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 4.7 billion ($1.4 billion) in July, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.8% of GDP from 5% in June. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Tax revenues in July totaled NIS 46.4 billion and reached NIS 306 b...

Tarcísio meets with right-wing governors and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2025

The government is expected to announce, by Tuesday, August 12, a contingency plan targeting sectors impacted by the tariffs imposed by the United States. In Congress, the opposition continues to mobilize around an agenda against the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The Senate will hold confirmation h...

The Phillips curve is alive and well
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2025

With the renewed decline in the unemployment rate, labor earnings, which are already growing significantly above productivity, are expected to face new pressures. Our estimates, based on pre-pandemic data, indicate that a 1 percentage point change in the economy’s slack, whether through an in...

Politics: Upcoming electoral reform—another significant blow to Mexican democracy
MEXICO · Report · 11 Aug 2025

The final step in AMLO's "Plan C", aimed at guaranteeing the ruling party the 2/3 qualified majority needed to modify the Constitution and thereby avoid the legislative or judicial branch's nullifying the 4T’s policies, is about to be concretized in the form of the Electoral Reform. On August 3 ...

Federal budget revenues may fall short amid disinflation and a strong ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2025

In the seven days ending on August 4, Rosstat reported weekly deflation accelerated to 0.13% w-o-w (versus 0.5% deflation in the previous seven days). Rosstat also reported that the MTD deflation reached 0.07% as of August 4 while the YTD inflation fell to 4.37%. Given that the MTD inflation on J...

The government should announce countermeasures for U.S. tariffs, Haddad should meet with the U.S. Treasury Secretary on Wednesday, and the Senate will hold confirmation hearings for appointees to regulatory agencies
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Aug 2025

The government is expected to announce, by tomorrow, August 12, a contingency plan to mitigate the impact of the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian exports. On Wednesday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad will hold a remote meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to di...

Industry leads growth
INDONESIA · Report · 11 Aug 2025

The Central Board of Statistics released its report on the National Accounts Data, which showed a rate of growth in the economy of 5.12% Y/Y in Q2 2025. The report became controversial since most economic observers had predicted that the economy would slow further in Q2 from the less-than-5% grow...

The problem of high tariffs on India’s exports to the U.S.
INDIA · Report · 11 Aug 2025 · 1 response

In response to a new 50% tariff on most goods exports from India to the United States, this report analyzes the short-term impact, possible motivations, and long-term consequences. The tariffs affect approximately $65 billion in Indian exports to the U.S. annually, or about 8% of India’s total ex...

Pashinyan and Aliyev take key steps toward peace — but at what cost, and to whose benefit?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Aug 2025

The signing of the Joint Declaration by Armenia and Azerbaijan reveals a geopolitical process that falls in line with the forecast I presented in my July Webinar. In particular, the declaration confirms my view that global and regional players (chiefly US, Turkey and Azerbaijan) recognize that Pa...

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