Pashinyan and Aliyev take key steps toward peace — but at what cost, and to whose benefit?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - In Brief 09 Aug 2025 by Ivan Tchakarov

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The signing of the Joint Declaration by Armenia and Azerbaijan reveals a geopolitical process that falls in line with the forecast I presented in my July Webinar. In particular, the declaration confirms my view that global and regional players (chiefly US, Turkey and Azerbaijan) recognize that Pashinyan is probably their last chance of securing a deal that serves their geopolitical ambitions. While this is not a final peace agreement as it does not address a number of key issues, including, among others, changes in the Armenian Constitution, and final and agreed upon demarcation of the border, it should be viewed as a key step in that direction. This pre-peace framework clearly outlines the winners and losers from the Washington DC summit. Most importantly, the U.S., Turkey, and Azerbaijan gain practically everything they’ve been striving for: The U.S. strengthens its influence in the region and is effectively gaining exclusive development rights on the so-called "Trump Bridge". This establishes new logistical routes for the transportation of energy resources, goods, military cargo, and troops through the "corridor".Turkey continues to push Russia out of the South Caucasus.Azerbaijan gains US-guaranteed (practically) free access to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. The main losers will be Russia, Iran, and Armenia: Russia will lose a significant portion of its influence in the South Caucasus to the U.S. and TurkeyIran's border will effectively be controlled by the U.S.As for Armenia, it is for all practical purposes surrendering control of its sovereign territory to a third country so that Azerbaijan can use it freely—despite Pashinyan repeatedly and categorically...