GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Public debt remains on an upward trajectory, and, given the current fiscal policy, we see no signs of reversal. Stabilizing it requires a substantial primary surplus, far removed from the deficit the government is expected to deliver this year and next. To keep debt to GDP constant over the long ...

CBR cuts the key rate by 25 bps, sees risks of rising inflation

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2026

The Central Bank of Russia cut the base rate by 25 bps to 14.25%, noting that while disinflation continues, it’s been uneven, with the latest weekly inflation reading above May’s weekly average. As of June 16, MTD inflation reached 0.38%, pushing YTD inflation to 3.68%. In May and April, monthly ...

A slow week in Brasília, the investigation into Senator Jaques Wagner continues, and five new presidential polls should be published

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2026

This will be a slow week in Brasília, with reduced activity in the National Congress, due to the São João festivities and Brazil's World Cup match on Wednesday (June 24). President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is scheduled to meet this week with Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), the government's l...

Politics: The 4T Government and Morena amid Latin America's political realignment

MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Less than two years into her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum faces compounding vulnerabilities that point toward a difficult remainder of her term. A stagnant economy, rigid public finances, deepening ties between Morena and organized crime, and unmet social demands across security, healthcare, and...

Upcoming Webinar - The impact of the Iran and Ukraine Wars on the CIS

CIS POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Date: 23 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT How have countries in the CIS region reacted to the Iran War? Why has Russia's support for Iran been so limited? Will Kazakhstan adopt a more active role in the region as a middle power? Is Armenia's pivot towards the US accelerating due to the war in Ira...

Weekly report, June 22, 2026: May CPI surprises on the downside; U.S.-Iran agreement reshapes market sentiment; shekel reverses course

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jun 2026

Key headlines: - The U.S.-Iran agreement dominated market attention last week. The agreement raised concerns in Israel regarding Iran's continued nuclear activities, the economic relief provided to Tehran, and limitations on Israel's future freedom of action in Lebanon. These concerns were re...

A revolt at the Constitutional Court - against the Fidesz-appointed President of the Republic

HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Jun 2026

PM Magyar has announced this afternoon that tomorrow, on Monday, June 22, the government is going to hand in to parliament its proposal to amend the Constitution once again, this time with a view to removing from office President Sulyok and seven other constitutionally independent but heavily Fid...

Volatile politics, stagnant economy

TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2026

The July Ankara NATO summit ostensibly aims to convince Trump that the best interests of the US are served by remaining and nurturing NATO. In fact, the summit will also celebrate Erdogan’s return to Western alliances, as a fully committed member willing to lift its share of the burden. Turkey’s...

Dominican Congress Approves Fiscal Reform Bill

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026

The National Congress has approved the fiscal reform bill, which includes measures to promote economic growth and mitigate the effects of the international economic crisis. The bill was submitted on June 11 and was considered under expedited legislative procedure by both the Senate and the Chambe...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil flows after US-Iran MoU, Kuwait and Qatar expect quite rapid restarts, Moody’s affirms Sharjah

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Jun 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Transits have picked up through Hormuz, and prices dropped to $78 after the US-Iran MoU. * The 14-point deal offers Iran sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets and a $300bn fund. * The IEA sees oil demand falling by over ...

Cards on the table

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Jun 2026

In a longer-than-usual meeting, the Copom ultimately decided on another 0.25 p.p. reduction in the Selic rate target, to 14.25% per year, as expected by the market and by us. That said, although the Copom’s assessment, expressed in the statement released after the meeting, is unequivocally more h...

Index of economic activity in May remains below pre-war levels

ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026

The Bank of Israel’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity declined by 0.4% in May. The index reflects the average monthly growth rate over the March-May period and captures the impact of the war on economic activity. The index readings for the previous two months were revised downward following the...

NBU keeps prime rate at 15% despite easing inflation

UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jun 2026

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% at its June meeting today. Consumer inflation eased in May to +0.9% m/m (or +8.2% y/y) from +1.4% m/m (or +8.6% y/y) in April. In early June, Ukraine received the next €2.8 billion wire from the EU, and we seemingly have positive news from Iran. ...

The Copom decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 points, the Lower House approved the Freight Transportation Executive Order, and the STF decided on the liability of digital platforms for third-party content

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jun 2026

As expected, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to cut the benchmark interest rate (Selic) by 25 percentage points, bringing it to 14.25% per year. The Lower House approved yesterday the Freight Transportation Executive Order (MP 1,343/26). The floor adopted the report a...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Jun 2026

Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that ...