NBU keeps prime rate at 15% despite easing inflation

UKRAINE - In Brief 18 Jun 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% at its June meeting today. Consumer inflation eased in May to +0.9% m/m (or +8.2% y/y) from +1.4% m/m (or +8.6% y/y) in April. In early June, Ukraine received the next €2.8 billion wire from the EU, and we seemingly have positive news from Iran. Yet the NBU's wording seems to be hardening. The NBU emphasizes its readiness to tighten monetary policy if it sees that fundamental inflation pressure persists. There is no obvious reason on the surface that might make the NBU nervous, and the hardened tone of the NBU seems a bit at odds with recent developments. However, there is a risk that the rapid hryvnia weakening over the first weeks of June made the NBU cautious about current trends. Unfortunately, we can only guess what happened in the FX market in early June, as details will become available much later. But likely the signal from the FX market is behind the somewhat tightened wording in the press release. The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be on July 30. By that time, we will have the first signals on the 2026 harvest and likely a clearer picture of whether the Strait of Hormuz blockade situation is finally resolved.

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