TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!
Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that has, in my view, remained relatively under-researched is Uzbekistan's foray into green energy.
To be sure, Uzbekistan remains a gas-driven economy, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 95% of total energy supply and 80% of electricity generation. However, the country's power sector is undergoing fast transformation. Renewables generated a mere 7.0% of electricity in 2021 before increasing their share to 9.9% in 2023, 15.9% in 2024 and 19.4% in 2025. Critically, this has been exclusively driven by an unprecedented expansion of solar and wind power. Solar and wind generation surpassed hydropower for the first time in 2025, marking a fundamental shift in the composition of renewable energy.
Uzbekistan has consequently emerged as the regional leader in modern (solar plus wind ex-hydro) renewable energy. The share of electricity generated from solar and wind rose from virtually zero in 2021 to 12% in 2025 as Uzbekistan overtook both Kazakhstan in 2024 and Armenia in 2025 in that vital green energy statistic. Supported by approximately US$35bn of investment, total installed generation capacity has reached almost 26 GW, with renewables accounting for around 30% of capacity. Solar and wind installations alone now exceed 7.5 GW, positioning Uzbekistan at the forefront of the energy transition across the Caucasus and Central Asia.
One technical, yet important, nuance needs to be mentioned. When the government says that clean energy accounts for 30% of the energy mix, it is usually referring to installed generating capacity (solar + wind + hydro) rather than actual electricity generation. Still, the progress on this parameter has been impressive, and the government's lofty goal of hitting 50% green energy in the energy mix by 2030 appears very much within reach.
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