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Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE, Durigan expects the bill authorizing the government to use oil revenues to be voted on this week, and Ciro Gomes said he will not be running for President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2026

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques officially assumes the presidency of Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) today. He will lead the court during the 2026–2028 term and will therefore preside over this year’s elections. Yesterday, Finance Minister Dario Durigan stated that he expects the complementa...

Ukraine reaches solid financial ground; finally, a better outlook amid endless war
UKRAINE · Report · 12 May 2026

Ukraine’s near-term outlook has improved materially on financing, but not on peace. Presidential Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov’s optimistic comments to Bloomberg about “good progress” in negotiations briefly lifted Ukrainian Eurobonds, yet this looked more like market overreaction than a signal o...

Budget deficit narrows in April on stronger-than-expected tax revenues
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 May 2026

The budget deficit over the past 12 months narrowed to 3.8% of the GDP in April, down from 4.2% in March and 4.7% in February. The better-than-expected figure was driven by stronger tax revenues, which rose by 5% year-on-year in real terms. Direct and indirect tax revenues both increased by aroun...

The succession chessboard in three key states and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan and the head of the Presidential Secretariat-General, Guilherme Boulos. Justice Kassio Nunes Marques will be sworn in as president of the Superior Electoral Court (TS...

Politics: Key legislative takeaways from the Congressional period that ended on April 30
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026

The congressional session that concluded on April 30 was one of the least productive in recent memory, despite Morena holding a legislative supermajority. Three bills stood out among the 61 approved across both chambers. The first is the electoral reform. The bill that was ultimately passed bo...

Is Indonesia growing faster?
INDONESIA · Report · 11 May 2026

Indonesia is entering an interesting period. As just released by the Central Board of Statistics, Indonesia's economy grew 5.61% Y/Y in the first quarter of 2026. At a time when the global economy is in the midst of major geopolitical uncertainty, especially due to the US, Israel vs. Iran war, In...

With a little help from my (not so close) friends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2026

Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the ...

Weekly report, May 11, 2026: Iran rejects ceasefire proposal; Israeli politics heats up, while markets focus on April CPI, the shekel, and the upcoming rate decision
ISRAEL · Report · 11 May 2026

Key developments and outlook: - Iran rejected the U.S. proposal to end the war: Israel assassinated a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, while fighting in southern Lebanon and exchanges of fire in the Gulf region continue. A diplomatic settlement appears unlikely in the near term, with the...

The committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from the Finance Minister, the rapporteur for the bill on the MEI revenue threshold should present his work plan, and Justice Marques will assume the presidency of the TSE
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 May 2026

The Special Committee in the Lower House discussing the end of the 6x1 work schedule will hold two public hearings this week. On Tuesday (May 12), the committee will hear from Finance Minister Dario Durigan. The rapporteur for Complementary Bill (PLP) No. 108/21, which raises the maximum annual g...

Economics: Poor Q1 public finance figures; Pemex remains a persistent burden
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, public finances deteriorated, casting serious doubt on whether a genuine "fiscal consolidation" process is actually underway this year — that is, whether a meaningful reduction in fiscal deficits, and in particular in the Broad Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (P...

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026

In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...

Domestic political risk has fallen markedly: Péter Magyar elected for prime minister today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2026

The newly elected National Assembly held its first session today. Péter Magyar was elected for prime minister, the institutional structure of the new government, meaning the list of ministries, is now approved, and the new government cabinet is expected to be up and running by May 12, Tuesday. Th...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran strikes ships and the UAE, Saudi Q1 deficit surges, PIF issues bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 May 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump’s “Project Freedom” in Hormuz led to the first Iranian fire at ships and the UAE in a month. * At the same time, there was talk of progress in peace proposals; oil yoyoed in the $96-114 range . * Saudi Arabia and Ku...

Tax collection improves in April, and upward revisions of expenditures are likely
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M26, total federal budget revenues reached RUB11.7 trln having fallen y-o-y by 4.5%. The collected amount accounted for 29.9% of the yearly plan and was behind schedule for this period. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues increased in April, but the amount was not...

Trump said his meeting with Lula went well, Justice Carmen Lúcia issued her opinion on the oil royalties case, and the House Committee on the 6x1 work schedule will hear from Dario Durigan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 May 2026

President Lula held another meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Shortly after the meeting, Trump wrote on social media that the discussion was “very good” and that new meetings between representatives of both countries will be scheduled in the coming months to address bilateral issues. Supr...

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