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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 18, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Israel’s economy continues the transition from a war economy to a more post-war period with a moderate growth phase. While activity remains expansionary, momentum is easing, and growth is increasingly export-led, with domestic demand still relatively weak. Geopolitical developments remain a key s...

All eyes are on the election now
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2026

European gas prices normalized once the roughly three-week period of extraordinary cold weather in January ended. The EU eventually approved its planned diversification away from Russian gas imports, but that did not have any significant market impact, suggesting the availability of sufficient su...

RP–China dispute on the West Philippine Sea: the fourth crack between Marcos and Duterte
PHILIPPINES · Report · 18 Feb 2026

The collapse of the UniTeam alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte has unfolded through a series of political fractures — from disagreements over international legal cooperation, to constitutional reform maneuvering, to impeachment battles. Yet these earli...

Inflation under guardianship
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Inflation rebounded to 32 percent in January 2026 amid sharp forex volatility, reflecting the market rate surge in the first two weeks of the month. On January 7, the forex gap peaked at 179 percent before closing the month at 39 percent on announcements that outlined a more favorable outlook for...

Economics: Annual core inflation rose in January; it will most likely remain above 4% in 2026
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Consumer inflation stood at 3.79% annually in January 2026, 10 basis points above December 2025 (3.69%) and very similar to the 2025 average, in a clear sign that it is not on a downward trend. The annual increase in prices in January was caused by the core component (as has been the case in rece...

Monetary policy and the fiscal rule under strain
CHILE · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Activity continues sluggish. We therefore maintain our near-term interpretation of stable growth at close to potential, with a modest upside bias from improved sentiment. Business sentiment improved sharply in January 2026. But hard data released at the end of 2025 reinforces our cautious view. I...

Essential CIS Politics: February 1 - February 17, 2026
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Russia presents US with a USD 12 trillion economic plan. Putin creates an intelligence agency under Rosgvardia, his “personal army”. Zelensky promises elections in exchange for a ceasefire. Russia will ship oil to Cuba, defying a US blockade. Kazakhstan will hold a...

Despite its long-term significance, last week’s passing of the labor reform bill by the Senate failed to impress the market
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

Summary On Thursday of last week, the Senate approved President Milei’s labor reform bill, officially known as Ley de Modernización Laboral, after a marathon debate with 42 votes in favor and 30 against. The approval came amid significant protests outside Congress, where unions and workers clashe...

Upcoming Webinar - Peru in 2026: Political risks, elections, and economics
PERU · Report · 17 Feb 2026

Is President Jeri going to be impeached? What should we anticipate from the upcoming elections on April 12th? Is the central bank's FX intervention effective? What are the side effects? What is Peru's economic forecast for 2026? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners...

Statistics brings more surprises and looks increasingly volatile
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

The Bureau of National Statistics confirmed earlier statements from authorities, announcing that GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. While the Bureau describes this as a flash estimate, it’s almost certain to hold given the agency’s track record of never revising historical data. In nominal terms, GDP reac...

Politics: Mexico's growing political vulnerabilities
MEXICO · Report · 17 Feb 2026

In recent years, various domestic policies implemented initially by the López Obrador administration and subsequently maintained by Claudia Sheinbaum's government have exacerbated Mexico's vulnerabilities, deepening the historical power asymmetry with the United States. This has facilitated acqui...

President Ramaphosa delivers SONA 2026 amid economic strain and reform pressures in an election year
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Feb 2026

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the 2026 State of the Nation Address against a complex domestic and global backdrop, marked by subdued economic growth, infrastructure constraints, geopolitical tensions and rising pressure on the government to demonstrate tangible progress under the Government...

Israel’s GDP numbers: Growth moderates, exports surged in Q4
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows that Israel’s GDP grew by 4% (annualized), slowing from an upwardly revised 12.7% in the third quarter (previously reported as 11.1%). The GDP fell sharply in Q2 2025 after the economy shut down for two weeks due to the war. Although activ...

Inflation moderates in January; probability of February rate cut rises
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2026

Israel’s consumer price index, published yesterday, surprised slightly to the downside, falling by 0.3% in January 2026, compared with our forecast of a 0.2% decline and a 0.1%-0.2% decline in the consensus forecast. As a result, annual inflation eased to 1.8%, its lowest level since June 2021. T...

Ministerial changes, IMF reflections
TURKEY · Report · 15 Feb 2026

President Erdogan changed his Interior and Justice Ministers at a delicate juncture in the Peace Process. The former Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya was offered as the sacrificial lamb to MHP, as the minister’s habit of purging nationalist high-ranking cops irritated the junior partner. The new n...

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