RP–China dispute on the West Philippine Sea: the fourth crack between Marcos and Duterte

PHILIPPINES - Report 18 Feb 2026 by Diwa Guinigundo and Wilhelmina Manalac

The collapse of the UniTeam alliance between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte has unfolded through a series of political fractures — from disagreements over international legal cooperation, to constitutional reform maneuvering, to impeachment battles. Yet these earlier disputes were largely domestic, centered on institutional power and political positioning.

The emerging divide over the West Philippine Sea represents a more consequential rupture. It reflects competing strategic visions of how the Philippines should navigate its dispute with China, one emphasizing pragmatic engagement and economic caution, the other asserting sovereignty through legal enforcement and strengthened international alignment. This divergence has spilled into legislative debates and political alignments, transforming foreign policy into a defining axis of domestic rivalry.

As Vice President Duterte signaled today her presidential ambitions, and political coalitions realign toward 2028, the geopolitical dimension of the dispute may become the decisive battleground shaping electoral narratives and national strategy. Unlike prior cracks in the alliance, this fourth fracture is not merely about power — it concerns the country’s strategic identity and long-term positioning in a contested regional order.

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