BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Motta has been criticized for not terminating the mandates of some representatives, the Sentencing bill may be put to a vote, and next week is the last week of legislative activity before the recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2025
The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), has come under criticism from both allies and opposition lawmakers over how the proceedings involving the possible removal of mandates have been handled. Next week will be marked by intense political negotiations in Brasília. It will...
Justice Gilmar partially reversed his decision on the impeachment law, the Senate approved the proposal reducing the work week, and the Senate also approved the Anti-Gang bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Dec 2025
Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Gilmar Mendes decided yesterday to partially reverse his own injunction that had suspended portions of the law governing the impeachment of public officials. Yesterday, the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved a proposed constitutional ame...
The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for attempted coup d’états, the House also approved the bill on persistent tax debtors, and the House may vote on a bill cutting tax benefits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2025
The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for individuals convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The vote came after a meeting between Senator and presidential pre-candidate Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the leaders of the PP, Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), and União Brasil, Antonio Rueda. Th...
Centrist parties approach Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy with caution, the House president will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and two major tax benefits bills are being considered in the Lower House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2025
When Flavio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy on Friday, the market reacted sharply and negatively. But there is resistance within the political arena, as well. Yesterday, Flavio scheduled a meeting with leaders from Centrist parties, but some chose not to attend. Today, the President of the Lowe...
Public security as a political asset and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025
This is the penultimate week of activity in the National Congress. In the Lower House, lawmakers may vote on the bill that regulates the Tax Reform and another that deals with tax benefits. In the Senate, the bill taxing betting companies and fintechs may complete its legislative process. In the ...
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he may run for president next year, the House President will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and the STF will review the impeachment law for justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025
On Friday, December 5, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) announcement of his pre-candidacy surprised both the market and the political establishment. However, on Sunday, December 7, in an interview, he admitted he may withdraw from the race — but said such a move comes with a price: amnesty for ...
Congress approved the Budget Guidelines Bill, the House will discuss creating a committee on Tax Reform, and discussions continue on the impeachment procedure for Supreme Court justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2025
Congress completed yesterday the approval of the 2026 Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO), which now includes a schedule for the payment of parliamentary amendments — a key demand from lawmakers ahead of next year’s elections. In the Lower House, President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) is expected to me...
Justice Gilmar’s decision has raised tensions between the branches of government, the STF reviews the Eletrobras case, and the truckers’ strike should be timid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Dec 2025
A new clash between the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and Congress has heightened institutional tensions. Justice Gilmar Mendes, in a single-justice decision, ruled that only the Prosecutor General may file criminal charges against an STF justice. He also determined that the impeachment of a justic...
The Planalto Palace has secured more time for Messias’s confirmation hearing, the Senate approved the bill that taxes fintechs, and the House approved the environmental licensing bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025
The government’s maneuver worked, and the Planalto Palace secured more time for Jorge Messias’s confirmation hearing for the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Initially, the president of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), had scheduled the hearing for December 10. But because President Lula did not...