BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Justice Toffoli has stepped down as rapporteur of the Banco Master case, a new poll suggests Lula would lose in a runoff among São Paulo voters, and the STF will review a request to extend the dividend distributions deadline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Feb 2026
Following reports that Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli may have benefited from payments made by banker Daniel Vorcaro, he has stepped down as rapporteur of the Banco Master case. Justice André Mendonça has been appointed as the new rapporteur. Yesterday, the Paraná Institute also...
A new poll reinforces the polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula and Motta meet to discuss the 6x1 work schedule issue, and tensions are expected to rise in Brasília regarding the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Feb 2026
Yesterday, a new round of the Genial/Quaest presidential polling was released. The poll reinforces the polarized landscape between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula leads in both first- and second-round scenarios. The absence of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas from the poll...
Discussions on the 6x1 workweek bill continue, the House approved the urgent status request for the Redata bill, and the STF may review the case regarding the TCU’s SecexConsenso secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2026
The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), said yesterday that a constitutional amendment is the “best way” to address the reduction of the workweek, as it allows for broader debate. On Monday, Motta submitted the constitutional amendment proposal (PEC) that would eliminate t...
The Federal Police was able to access Vorcaro’s cellphone, Motta submitted the 6x1 proposal to the CCJC, and urgency may also be voted on for the Redata bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2026
The news that the Federal Police managed to break the encryption on the cellphone of Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, generated significant repercussions in Brasília. There is considerable anticipation regarding the information that may be recovered. The President of the Lower House, Hugo M...
Lula enters 2026 in campaign mode and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026
The week leading up to Carnaval will see reduced activity in Congress. Four new presidential approval and voting polls will be released. In the House, highlights include a vote on urgency status for the Redata bill and consideration of the complementary bill on bank resolution. The government is ...
The House is expected to vote on the urgent status of the bill on Data Centers, four presidential voting polls are expected for release this week, and the STF should analyze a case against the TCU’s new secretariat
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026
The Lower House is expected to vote this week on an urgent status request for the bill establishing a Tax Regime for Data Centers (Redata), which would create tax incentives for the construction of data centers in Brazil. Four new presidential voting polls are scheduled for release this week. The...
In an interview Lula said that both Haddad and Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo, Justice Dino ordered the suspension of “extra perks” in the public sector, and next week should be quiet as it precedes Carnaval
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2026
Yesterday, in an interview with UOL, President Lula said that both Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Vice President Geraldo Alckmin have a role to play in São Paulo. Both have so far resisted running for elective office in October, but pressure is mounting. Yesterday, Supreme Court Justice Flá...
Two presidential voting polls were released yesterday, Lula attended a dinner last night with congressional leaders, and the CPMI on the INSS may hear from the INSS president
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Feb 2026
Yesterday, two presidential voting polls were released, both showing similar results. A poll conducted by Meio/Ideia Big Data indicates that President Lula (PT) leads in all five tested first-round scenarios. The Gerp Institute also confirmed the polarized landscape between President Lula (PT) an...
The Senate approved the People’s Gas Provisional Measure, the government’s priority is now the “6x1” work schedule, and Haddad said he presented two names to Lula for positions at the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Feb 2026
The Senate concluded yesterday the vote on the People’s Gas provisional measure (MP 1,313/25). As no substantive changes were made, the bill now moves to the President’s desk for final approval. Another government priority is ending the so-called “6x1” work schedule. According to Congressman Lind...