BRAZIL POLITICS
Analysts
Murillo de Aragão
Founder, Political Consultancy Arko Advice
Cristiano Noronha
Partner, Political Consultancy Arko AdviceRecent Country Insights
Flávio Bolsonaro is numerically ahead of Lula in the latest polls on the runoff, the STF will hold a session next week on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, and the Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate to 13.75% next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Sep 2026
Two polls released yesterday, one by PoderData and another by AtlasIntel, showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula in hypothetical runoff matchups. In the PoderData poll, the result is 47% to 45%. In the AtlasIntel poll, it is 46.4% to 46.2%. The main focus next week will be the Sup...
Justice Fachin called a session for next week to decide on the latest Banco Master development, the government is trying to lower gas prices, and Lula signs into law the measure eliminating the so-called “blouse import tax”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026
Supreme Federal Court (STF) Chief Justice Luiz Edson Fachin has called an extraordinary session for next Tuesday, September 15, for the full Court to decide on a Federal Police report that identifies Justice Alexandre de Moraes as the interlocutor of former banker Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco M...
The latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff, Chief Justice Fachin gave Justice Mendonça 72 hours to respond to a request from the AGU, and Fachin may take over the Banco Master case
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Sep 2026
Yesterday, a voting-intention poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) numerically ahead of Lula (PT) in a runoff, with 46% to 45%, according to Nexus/BTG Pactual. The erosion in support is not driven solely by the institutional issues surrounding the crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF). The econo...
The presidential race with no clear favorite and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026
The crisis at the Federal Supreme Court (STF) continues. Statements from the Office of the Prosecutor General (PGR) and Justice André Mendonça to Justice Edson Fachin are expected regarding Mendonça’s conduct in the Banco Master case. Mendonça may also approve a plea bargain related to "Dark Hors...
Flávio took part in a political rally in São Paulo yesterday, Lula delivered a nationally televised address, and there is no clear frontrunner in the election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) took part in a political rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo on September 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, which drew strong turnout from Bolsonaro’s political base. The demonstration was held under the slogan “Lula and Alexandre de Moraes Out”. President Lula (PT) d...
The STF crisis continues to escalate, and the latest polls show Lula ahead of Flávio in the first round but tied in the runoff, so there is currently no clear favorite in the presidential race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2026
The crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues to escalate. Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice André Mendonça be investigated as part of the fake news inquiry for abuse of authority. The full Court will now have to decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandr...
Pressure on the STF continues to build, Alcolumbre will meet with party leaders to discuss impeachment requests against Justice de Moraes, and the government secured important advances in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Sep 2026
New information about Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) has emerged, further increasing pressure on the Court. Justice André Mendonça, the justice overseeing the Banco Master case before the STF, met with Daniel Vorcaro without the Federal Police present. Today, Senate President Davi Alcolumbr...
New evidence from the Vorcaro case was presented by the Federal Police, the opposition filed impeachment requests against Justice Moraes, and the Joint Committee may vote on the so-called “blouse tax”
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2026
Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice André Mendonça, who is overseeing the investigations into fraud involving Banco Master, suggested in a decision released on Tuesday (September 1) that new evidence presented by the Federal Police (PF) in the case be reviewed by the full Court. Mendonça lifted t...
The TSE suspended presidential candidate Renan Santos’s campaign, candidate Augusto Cury rose significantly in the polls, and Justice Toffoli was criticized for his decision against Renan Santos
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Sep 2026
Two new developments yesterday shook up the presidential race. The first was the surprising rise of Augusto Cury (Avante) in voting-intention polls. Cury gained 6.2 percentage points in the AtlasIntel poll, reaching 7.8%. In the Nexus/BTG poll, the Avante candidate climbed nine points to 11%. The...