The STF crisis continues to escalate, and the latest polls show Lula ahead of Flávio in the first round but tied in the runoff, so there is currently no clear favorite in the presidential race

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 04 Sep 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

The crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues to escalate. Yesterday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested that Justice André Mendonça be investigated as part of the fake news inquiry for abuse of authority. The full Court will now have to decide whether to investigate Justice Alexandre de Moraes and whether to include Justice André Mendonça in the fake news inquiry. A new Datafolha presidential election poll was released yesterday. President Lula (PT) has 38% of first-round voting intentions, compared with 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In a runoff, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro numerically by 46% to 44%, a statistical tie given the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. At this point, there is no clear favorite in the presidential race.

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