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Daniel Vorcaro may enter into a plea agreement, members of Congress have submitted a request to install a CPI to investigate the Banco Master case, and Lula’s meeting with Trump has been postponed due to the war in Iran
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2026

In Brasília, the possibility that Daniel Vorcaro may enter into a plea agreement is increasingly being discussed as a real scenario. The decision by Supreme Federal Court (STF) justice and case rapporteur André Mendonça to relax visitation rules for Vorcaro at the federal penitentiary in Brasília...

Iran war fiscal impact model: Kuwait and Qatar hit hardest, Bahrain may need support
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Mar 2026

This report includes a simple model (which clients can manipulate) to estimate the possible fiscal impact of the war. Kuwait and Qatar face the largest fiscal hits due to their near-total reliance on Hormuz-dependent exports, but both have deep reserve buffers. Kuwait will soon need to shut down ...

Slow but steady: South Africa records its fifth consecutive positive GDP growth rate in Q4-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Mar 2026

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) indicate that South Africa’s economy registered its fifth consecutive quarterly expansion, as it increased by 0.4% q/q in the final quarter of 2025. As in previous quarters, Q4-2025 growth was mainly fueled by strong household consum...

The U.S.–Israel war with Iran: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, March 10, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Missile attacks toward Israel have declined since the first days of the war, but Hezbollah activity on the northern front has increased. Yesterday, Hezbollah launched a missile toward central Israel, claiming it targeted a satellite communications facility. - At this stage, the t...

MNB is ready to intervene for the forint, offering the sale of FX to energy importers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

The Monetary Council decided this afternoon to offer the sale of foreign currencies to energy importers, for the MNB to secure the availability of FX liquidity at the current increased level of import prices. As Vice Governor Kurali commented, they want to eliminate the risk that the market could...

Haddad will reportedly run for Governor of São Paulo, 35 senators have signed a request to install a CPI to investigate the Banco Master case, and the TSE continues to adjudicate the case against Rio Governor Castro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has reportedly been persuaded to run for governor of São Paulo in October. His departure from the ministry is expected to take place next week. Senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE) yesterday filed a request to establish a Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) to ...

Though Russia's strategies keep failing, the war is far from over
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Mar 2026

The military operation against Iran is welcome news for Ukraine, though not a decisive shift. Iran has been one of Russia's most valuable partners: Shahed drones built on Iranian technology have systematically devastated Ukraine's energy infrastructure, while Tehran helped Moscow evade Western sa...

The “Two Sessions” and growth expectations for 2026
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: - During this week’s Two Sessions meetings, Premier Li Qiang announced that China’s GDP growth target in 2026 would be 4.5% to 5.0%. Several economists (including myself) would have preferred a much lower, more sustainable target, but I don’t think ...

The Banco Master case: questions and answers
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Are new revelations likely to intensify attention around the Banco Master case and keep it in the spotlight in the media, Congress, and social networks? Will the press continue to give the case prominent coverage? Could supporters, political allies, and operators close to President Lula and Senat...

Iranian missiles, bank trials
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned abo...

Iran War Day 10: Oil whipsaws on shifting US signals
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Highlights The US sent conflicting signals on the war's timeline. Brent crude briefly hit $119 before retreating sharply after Trump's comments and G7 reserve-release talk, dropping below $90. Iran's new Supreme Leader adviser Kamal Kharazi told CNN there is "no room for diplomacy" and that Tehra...

February budget data show strong revenue growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Against the backdrop of the war entering its 10th day, the Ministry of Finance yesterday published the budget results for February. As in previous months, the data surprised on the upside, with government revenues exceeding expectations. In real terms and at constant tax rates, tax revenues in Ja...

The Banco Master crisis is likely to escalate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The Public Security Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) is expected to begin moving through the Senate. Banker Daniel Vorcaro may testify before the Senate Economic Affairs Committee. The Chief Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Justice Edson Fachin, will meet with court presidents t...

Economics: Indicators published in February point to a weak economic recovery for 2026, with inflation above Banxico's target and deteriorating public finances
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2026

Economic indicators published in February suggest that Mexico will experience a moderate recovery in 2026 following the stagnation observed in 2025, although this rebound is shaping up to be weak and constrained by multiple obstacles. Private consumption shows signs of gradual recovery, driven la...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The decline in inflation has been concentrated on exchange-rate-sensitive items, but further progress depends on a slowdown in economic activity, which is already underway, and on the labor market, which, in contrast, remains resilient. Consumption appears to respond more to restrictions in the c...

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