BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The force awakens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2025
The decline in the trade surplus since last year has been driven by rising imports, in line with the expansion of domestic demand. On the export side, however, relevant shifts have been observed among different trading partners. China has lost ground due to falling prices of the main commodities ...
At cross purposes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025
From the second quarter onward, signs of economic slowdown became increasingly evident. To ensure a consistent path toward inflation convergence at the target midpoint, it is crucial that this trend be maintained. However, the risks of interruption are far from negligible. The government has ...
Rational immunization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2025
Economic activity has proven stronger than anticipated in recent years, despite expectations of a slowdown in light of monetary policy supposedly operating in a restrictive stance. The repeated forecasting errors observed over the past four years also suggest a certain degree of persistence. ...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025
OVERVIEW LULA AND THE EFFECTS OF HIS “BODY OF WORK” ON THE ELECTIONS Several factors have triggered a pendulum movement in expectations for next year’s presidential elections. The right suffered a major setback with Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attem...
Mind the gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025
The Central Bank maintained its inflation projection for the relevant horizon, despite exchange rate appreciation and the slowdown in economic activity. One factor behind this decision was the upward revision of output gap estimates, reflecting the stronger-than-expected labor market dynamics. Th...
Should I stay or should I go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response
Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...
The other deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025
The balance of payments has been marked by a rapid increase in the current account deficit, while the financial account remains relatively stable. Most of the deterioration in the current account stems from rising imports in a context of demand pressures, but there is also a worsening in some ser...
A budget made in Hogwarts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
The administration has proposed a budget that, under optimistic assumptions, would result in a primary deficit of 0.17% of GDP in 2026. The projections rely on favorable revenue scenarios, which depend both on supportive economic conditions and on the approval by Congress of politically sensitive...
The consequences come afterwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2025
GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly above average forecasts, 0.3%, but on top of a revised expansion in the first quarter, from 1.4% to 1.3%, that is, broadly in line. Compared to the same period last year, growth reached 2.2%, accumulating 2.5% in the first half of the year and 3.2% ov...