BRAZIL ECONOMICS
Analysts
Alexandre Schwartsman
Former Central Bank Deputy Governor
Cristina Pinotti
Former Chief Economist, DIVESPDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
With a little help from my (not so close) friends
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2026
Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the ...
The compass, the map and the fog
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2026
We believe that the reading of the most recent edition of the Copom Minutes was dominated by one single question: will the easing cycle, pardon, the calibration of the Selic continue, or will the BC be forced to end it, or pause it, after only modest two cuts of 0.25 p.p. each? Our understandi...
Inflation's fuel is not just fuel prices
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2026
The inflation outlook is shaped by both the external shock associated with the situation in the Middle East and the deterioration of underlying inflation measures. The acceleration of core inflation and underlying services, combined with broader diffusion, signals that price pressures reflect per...
The sea steers BCB
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2026
As widely expected, Copom decided to reduce the target for the policy interest rate again by 0.25 p.p., from 14.75% to 14.50% per year, even in the face of higher inflation projections for the relevant horizon. BCB made it clear that it attributes the deterioration to the effects of the confli...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2026
With survival and the October election on the radar, political actors anxiously await the outcome of the plea bargain of Daniel Vorcaro & Cia. If accepted by the Federal Police, Federal Prosecutor’s Office and Supreme Federal Court, it may trigger an earthquake with potential to affect the lives ...
The energy that comes from oil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2026
The real continues on an appreciation trajectory, with performance that stands out relative to developed and emerging peers. The movement reflects higher oil prices, which tend to improve the terms of trade and the country’s external position, combined with strong inflows of foreign capital into ...
Budget in Wonderland
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Apr 2026
The administration has submitted to Congress the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2027, signaling the evolution of federal public accounts for the next 4 years, from 2027 to 2030. It could be nominated for the Hugo Award — if there were a category for budget pieces.
The truth in drips
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2026
The government raised the projected primary deficit from BRL 23 billion to BRL 60 billion. There are still indications of underestimation in spending on Social Security and BPC, while the oil shock led to the announcement of BRL 31 billion in subsidies and tax waivers, an amount that tends to inc...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026
SURPRISES IN THE ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE AND THE SUPREME COURT UNDER SCRUTINY The deadline for officeholders to step down from their positions and of the party-switching window accelerated the definition of presidential candidacies for the October election, bringing a new development with the pote...