The Most Serene Committee

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Feb 2026 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The minutes of the last Copom meeting brought relatively few novelties compared to the Statement released last week, but, taken as a whole, they reinforce our conviction that the most likely scenario for monetary policy involves the beginning of the monetary easing cycle with a 0.50 p.p. cut at the March meeting.

We would not go so far as to claim that, in the minutes, the Central Bank performed the traditional “victory lap.” The document is far more sober than that, but, in some way, Copom does understand that its monetary policy strategy has been successful, even as it correctly points to certain remaining risks.

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