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Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 10, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Dec 2025

This week’s indicators suggest that the economy is transitioning from a post-war rebound to a more stable and sustainable growth path. Retail activity normalized, while business expectations improved, signaling that firms anticipate stronger orders and output in early 2026. Fiscal data were once ...

Upcoming webinar - Latin America in 2026: Inflation, policy and politics in a shifting global landscape
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Dec 2025 · 1 response

Going into 2026, what is the economic outlook for the key Latin American economies of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico? How will the persistence of above-target inflation in the region be addressed? What is ahead for monetary policy and central banks? Is Latam positioned well for a reve...

The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for attempted coup d’états, the House also approved the bill on persistent tax debtors, and the House may vote on a bill cutting tax benefits
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2025

The Lower House approved a bill that reduces penalties for individuals convicted of attempting a coup d’état. The vote came after a meeting between Senator and presidential pre-candidate Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and the leaders of the PP, Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), and União Brasil, Antonio Rueda. Th...

Economics: Credit to the private sector slows despite Banxico's extended easing cycle
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2025

According to figures published recently by Banxico, financing to the non-financial private sector slowed at an annual rate in the domestic currency component in the third quarter. Within domestic financing, the bank loan portfolio, which represents about 60% of the total, is showing slower growth...

Centrist parties approach Flavio Bolsonaro’s candidacy with caution, the House president will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and two major tax benefits bills are being considered in the Lower House
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Dec 2025

When Flavio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy on Friday, the market reacted sharply and negatively. But there is resistance within the political arena, as well. Yesterday, Flavio scheduled a meeting with leaders from Centrist parties, but some chose not to attend. Today, the President of the Lowe...

Growth accelerates, but politics and public finances remain gloomy
POLAND · Report · 09 Dec 2025

Recent polling from October–November 2025 shows the Civic Coalition (KO) leading PiS by several percentage points—a shift driven partly by PiS vote erosion rather than only KO gains; fragmentation on the right (Konfederacja, KPP) and personal clashes among right-wing leaders have weakened PiS’s p...

A powerful ending to 2025
INDONESIA · Report · 09 Dec 2025

As the year 2025 comes to a close, the Indonesian economy continues robust. For the last three quarters the Indonesian economy has grown by slightly over 5%, and the last quarter of this year is also expected to post decent growth. For example, the S&P Global Indonesian Manufacturing PMI rose to ...

Good news on consumer inflation in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025

CPI-inflation for November has been reported at 0.1% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning. The year-on-year rate dropped quite substantially, from the previous 4.3%, and it fell into the MNB target range for the first time this year. Non-fuel inflation dropped to 4.6% yoy, i.e. by two decimal points from t...

HEADS UP: Turkish military columns in Northern Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025

At least three separate sources report that Turkish military convoys are entering Northern Syria from multiple directions. The incursion could be just a show of force by Ankara to force reticent Syrian Kurds to reach a deal with Damascus to integrate their military wing with the national army, or...

Public security as a political asset and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

This is the penultimate week of activity in the National Congress. In the Lower House, lawmakers may vote on the bill that regulates the Tax Reform and another that deals with tax benefits. In the Senate, the bill taxing betting companies and fintechs may complete its legislative process. In the ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

LULA 4: A SAMPLE OF THE COMING TIDAL WAVE What was expected to be a calm year-end came to an abrupt halt on Friday, December 5, with a clear sample of the uncertainty and risk that will accompany us into 2026. Equities were 4.31% down, reversing the previous mood of euphoria — or “overbought” ...

Politics: A quick review of the laws passed during the legislature now concluding
MEXICO · Report · 08 Dec 2025

On the economic front, considering the country’s lackluster economic performance, the main pieces of legislation that were approved in the session now concluding—the Federal Revenue Law and Federal Expenditure Law—offered no surprises. The bills ratified excessive spending to maintain social subs...

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro announced he may run for president next year, the House President will meet with the Tax Reform rapporteur, and the STF will review the impeachment law for justices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Dec 2025

On Friday, December 5, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) announcement of his pre-candidacy surprised both the market and the political establishment. However, on Sunday, December 7, in an interview, he admitted he may withdraw from the race — but said such a move comes with a price: amnesty for ...

Fitch Ratings' outlook on their BBB sovereign rating went from Stable to Negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2025

Fitch Ratings held the H2 review of their Hungary sovereign rating yesterday, also ending the late-in-the-year review season for the Top-3 rating agencies as regards 2025. The agency affirmed the government's BBB rating, but changed the outlook to Negative from Stable on this occasion:Fitch attri...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, PMIs rise, UAE Q3 surplus, Bahrain’s CDS spreads spike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Dec 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+’s capacity audit will mainly be done by US firm D&M, bar sanctioned countries. * The budgeted Saudi spending cuts are mainly in capex and use of goods and services. * The finance minister reaffirmed an openness to ...

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