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Congress overturned Lula’s vetoes of the environmental licensing bill, Congressman Aguinaldo may present his report on the AI bill next week, and the Senate will analyze the bill that taxes fintechs and bets
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Nov 2025

The government suffered new defeats in Congress. Lawmakers overturned President Lula’s vetoes of the environmental licensing bill (PL 2159/21), except for the provisions related to the Special Environmental Licensing (LAE), which are addressed in Provisional Measure 1308/25. Next week marks the b...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia leading, Armenia rising, Azerbaijan stable in South Caucasus Banking Review
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Nov 2025

I just completed a comparative report of the banking sectors and broader business climates of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan across 17 thematic pillars. My South Caucasus Banking & Investment Review 2025 finds that Georgia is still leading the South Caucasus in banking and investment metrics wi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025

Nov 15 KMG: The company and Uzbekneftegaz (Uzbekistan) signed an agreement on the Zharkyn oil exploration project in Mangystau region. President: Kazakhstan intends to increase the volume of transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan. Nov 16 President: Mr. Tokayev welcomes Azerbaijan's accession to reg...

Industrial growth unexpectedly accelerates in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025

Rosstat reported that in the aftermath of unimpressive performance in the previous months (0.7% y-o-y in 9M25) industrial production grew by 3.1% y-o-y in October and 3.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 10M25, the industry expanded by 1.0% y-o-y as a result. The numbers still don’t look i...

Growing and stable, despite pressure from the north
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Nov 2025

Costa Rica closes 2025 with solid headline data, but growing underlying weaknesses. GDP is set to expand by about 4.2%, yet most of the strength comes from free trade zones, driven almost entirely by medical device manufacturing—now 42% of goods exports, and heavily exposed to U.S. tariff and res...

Bolsonaro begins serving his 27-year sentence, the latest poll shows Tarcísio and Ratinho Jr. are the most competitive right-wing candidates, and the Senate Plenary approved a bill regulating special retirement rules for health agents
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Nov 2025

Justice Alexandre de Moraes yesterday ordered the start of sentence enforcement for those convicted in the so-called “Core 1” of the attempted coup, including former President Jair Bolsonaro and Generals Braga Netto and Augusto Heleno. A new CNT/MDA poll on the 2026 race was released yesterday. A...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, November 25, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Nov 2025

More than a month after the Gaza ceasefire, Israel’s strategic environment remains unstable. Military gains in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have not translated into durable political arrangements. In Lebanon, Hezbollah's rearming and tensions have intensified following recent Israeli strikes. In Gaza,...

Mixed fiscal results through September, but infrastructure projects are good news for medium-term growth prospects
PANAMA · Report · 25 Nov 2025

The NFPS fiscal trajectory observed through September 2025 supports maintaining the sovereign’s investment-grade rating in 2026. However, the deficit containment strategy relies heavily on spending cuts rather than structural revenue expansion, raising sustainability concerns. Our review of fi...

Soft data and hard politics
CHILE · Report · 25 Nov 2025

IMACEC volatility remains high, reinforcing the need to interpret monthly prints from a wider perspective. GDP results confirmed a soft third quarter. Mining disruptions were the main drag, but private consumption growth also moderated. Although the most recent data look stronger, we interpret it...

Political risk eases with the appointment of President Jeri; economy surprises on the positive side; the BCRP’s policy dilemma
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2025

In this report we offer an update on politics, the economy and markets. We first discuss how political risk has remained muted, despite the impeachment of former president Dina Boluarte, and Congress’s naming of José Jerí as interim president, while extending its own term through July 28th. Next,...

The government faces a turbulent relationship with Congress, Bolsonaro has decided not to file a second round of appeals, and the Senate will hear from Central Bank President Galípolo
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2025

At a moment when the government is trying to push through a series of key year-end measures, political coordination inside the Planalto Palace is facing turbulence. House President Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB) publicly broke with the Workers’ Party floor leader, Lindbergh Farias. Former President...

Republican budget tax revenues remain well behind the plan in 10M25
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 25 Nov 2025

The Ministry of Finance has not yet published a full set of budgetary statistics for 10M25 and at the time of writing this note just released a brief note with several key republican budget numbers. According to the published text, total revenues (including tax revenues, non-tax revenues, incomes...

S&P downgrades BAHRAIN due to rising debt, but upgrades KUWAIT for the same reason
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2025

S&P took two opposite rating actions on Friday. It downgraded Bahrain to a record low of B, the lowest in the GCC by far. At the same time, it upgraded Kuwait back to its 2021 level of AA-. In 2006, around the time I first visited the Gulf, Bahrain was only one notch below Kuwait (A- vs. A), but ...

Economics: With the heyday of robust commodity prices long past, Mexico's agriculture struggles amid improvised, dysfunctional policies
MEXICO · Report · 24 Nov 2025

The government’s response to agriculture over the past year traverses an arc similar to other areas of government policy, including energy, health, education, and communications infrastructure. This response is characterized by strategies directly inherited from the previous administration along...

Security is likely to remain a priority in Congress and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Nov 2025

President Lula will sign the bill that grants an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000 per month. The Senate’s Economic Affairs Committee may vote on a bill regulating bets and fintechs. The National Congress meets to review presidential vetoes, including those related to environm...

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