PANAMA
Analyst
Marco Fernandez
Former Economic Advisor, Ministry of PlanningDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The reform of the pension system goes to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
The reform of the CSS legislation, in particular the pension system, is the most recent initiative of the Mulino administration, after the Fiscal Responsibility Law enacted at the beginning of the month (which suffered minor changes in the legislative) and the Budget Law, which was changed substa...
The 2024-2025 economic reform's timeline: two steps forward, still four to go
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024
Summary We discuss the key reforms that will take place during the Mulino administration. The Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRSF) and the Public Sector Budget for 2025 were approved last week, with political setbacks. The Legislative Assembly (AN) introduced changes in the proposal of the Ministry o...
Another setback for the Executive: the Budget Committee returns the MEF Proposal... we analyze the options of both groups
PANAMA · In Brief · 23 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The 2025 budget project, approved by the cabinet on October 15 and presented the same day to the Assembly, was returned (not rejected) after the first debate in the Legislative Assembly. The 15 members of the budget committee requested the Minister of Economy and Finance to modify his proposal to...
New Fiscal Social Responsibility Law is approved by the Cabinet and submitted to the Legislative Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 18 Oct 2024
On October 14, the Assembly received the proposal for a new fiscal law (LRSF in Spanish). This law is necessary to establish the deficit ceilings before enacting the 2025 budget (which we will comment on in an upcoming report). This new version of the LRSF includes three topics within the same bo...
The order of factors does affect the product: a defeat for the Executive in the Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 11 Oct 2024 · 1 response
This week, the Executive Branch presented its proposal for the 2025 national budget to the Legislative Branch, which was challenged on Thursday by the Budget Commission for three reasons: (1) it was not submitted on time, as the Constitution (Article 184) requires the proposal to be sent within t...
The challenges of the pension system and Mulino's path to reform
PANAMA · Report · 16 Sep 2024
President Mulino made several important announcements on Thursday, September 12, focusing on the path of the pension reform and placing strong emphasis on measures to improve the healthcare system, which could lead to political gains. On the pension system, Mulino confirmed a dialogue table start...
Mulino faces five challenges over the next eighteen months. Chapman taps the local market. The principle of specialty that Martinelli is pursuing may be a formidable obstacle to the path of reforms
PANAMA · Report · 26 Aug 2024 · 1 response
The Mulino administration has inherited five critical challenges that impact the future of the country's public finances and the economy as whole: 1) the revision of the sub-system of defined benefits of the state pension program; 2) a tax reform; 3) the decision about the copper mining project, ...
Fiscal accounts for the semester, Chapman’s financial proposals and their implications, Mulino’s announcements, and important appointments to come
PANAMA · Report · 12 Aug 2024 · 1 response
The fiscal accounts for the first semester, published last week, align with our projections for a Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) deficit close to 8% of semiannual GDP according to our estimates, reaching 3.96% of the projected GDP for the entire year. Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapm...
Growth and challenges ahead: the 2024-2025 economic forecast
PANAMA · Forecast · 26 Jul 2024
The economic outlook for 2024-2025 predicts real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, supported by major investments and recovering Canal operations. Key risks include the effects of the cessation of copper mining, high interest rates and fiscal deficits. Inflation will rise slightly, and...