KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: the tenge needs to weaken further
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 12 Aug 2025
In its most recent monthly statement on the FX market (published on August 1) the National Bank of Kazakhstan mentioned that trading activity increased last month and the tenge weakened by 4%. Total trade volume reached $5.7 bln, of which $0.7 bln was accounted for by FX sales from the National F...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025
Jul 24 KMG: Kazakhstan increased oil refining by 8.4% y-o-y in 1H25. Government: Turkish investors to build grain processing and fertilizer production plants in Kazakhstan for $610 mln. Jul 28 Asian Development Bank: The bank improved Kazakhstan's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.9% to 5.1%, and t...
Inflation likely remains elevated for the rest of the year, prompting no rate cuts from NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2025
The Bureau of National Statistics reported that inflation decelerated m-o-m from 0.8% in June to 0.7% in July. However, the y-o-y price index remained unchanged at 11.8%. Services prices grew y-o-y by 14.9% (down from 16.1% in June), food prices were up by 11.2% (up from 10.6% in June), and the n...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Jul 9 National Railway Company: Kazakhstan and China have signed an agreement on comprehensive strategic cooperation, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan plans to maintain oil production at the current level for the rest of the...
Kazakhstan macro: economy accelerates amid delayed budget spending
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Last week, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that economic growth continued to accelerate on a year-over-year basis as the short-term indicator (a monthly print of economic activity) grew by 9.0% in 1H25. In 5M25, it was up by 8.6% y-o-y, and in January alone, it grew by 4.5% only. This ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Jul 2025
Jun 25 Parliament: The Mazhilis (lower house) of the Parliament has finally approved the new Tax Code as amended by the Senate. The new Code introduces a progressive personal income tax scale: a salary of up to a specially introduced “monthly indicator” equal to 8500 per year (currently about KZT...
The National Fund decreases amid lack of revenues
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported that assets of the National Fund shrank from KZT36.7 trln ($66.2 bln) as of January 1, 2025, to KZT32.8 trln ($63.4 bln) as of July 1. Tax revenues, i.e., the bulk of incoming payments, amounted to KZT1.8 trln in 1H25, i.e., 37.0% of the annual target (nearly KZT4...
Inflation y-o-y rises amid a slow deceleration m-o-m prompting no decisive action from the NBK
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025
Inflationary pressure remains high as the Bureau of National Statistics reported inflation moved from 11.3% in May to 11.8% in June. However, it moderately decelerated last month to 0.8% m-o-m (versus 0.9% m-o-m in May and even higher numbers earlier this year). A year ago, inflation m-o-m was 0....
Kazakhstan macro: inflation to decelerate slowly as economy remains overheated
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2025
Despite various challenges, the Kazakh economy has been performing well in recent years, and 2025 is expected to be another good year as economic growth is reportedly accelerating. Growth remains uneven, but strengthening of the services sector is an important trait of the Kazakh economy. The cou...