KAZAKHSTAN
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kazakhstan macro: Medium-term growth should moderate, but become more sustainable
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 04 Nov 2026
In the recent World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected Kazakh GDP growth at 4.4% for this year. In dollar terms, the Fund expected GDP to reach nearly $398 bln. Earlier, the country’s authorities anticipated GDP growth of over 5.0% in 2026 and aimed for faster economic expansion in the coming ye...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Nov 2026
Oct 22 Direct investments: Baiterek Holding and Chinese Guoyou Materials have signed a memorandum regarding a $1 bln project for a new terminal at the port of Kuryk. Oct 23 NBK: The Bank lowers base rate from 16.25% to 15.75% and plans no changes to the base rate this year. KMG: The company plans...
Kazakhstan macro: Budget revenues to rely on the performance of a few key sectors
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Oct 2026
According to the Bureau of Economic Statistics, Kazakhstan’s economic growth slowed this year, with GDP rising 4.1% y-o-y in 1H26 and the short-term indicator of monthly economic activity up 4.8% y-o-y in 9M26 — both weaker than in 2025. However, given that economic statistics are neither fully a...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 22 Oct 2026
Oct 8 Finance Ministry: Kazakhstan has earned an Index Watch Positive status after JPMorgan’s 2026 review of its index classification, potentially paving the way for the country’s sovereign bonds to be included in the GBI‑EM index. National nuclear company: The shareholders of Kazatomprom approve...
Tax revenues behind the overly ambitious plan as economic growth moderated
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Oct 2026
Recently released economic and budget execution data show that growth remains steady, though slower than in 2025. The Bureau of National Statistics reports that the short-term indicator - a monthly measure of activity across industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and communic...
Kazakhstan macro: Retail sales growth looks steady in 9M26 despite puzzling statistics
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 14 Oct 2026
Recent publications from the Bureau of National Statistics indicated that in 1H26 GDP grew by 4.1% y-o-y, both on the production side and by end-use. According to official reports, total consumption rose y-o-y by 2.1% in 1H26, with household consumption up 2.0%, suggesting slightly faster growth ...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Oct 2026
Sep 24 Kazakhstan Stock Exchange: Kazakhstan held a global call with investors as part of the preparation for a new 5Y sovereign Eurobond issue. EBRD: The bank has kept its forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2026 unchanged at 4.7%. Halyk bank: The bank intends to issue discount bonds worth K...
Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 23 Sep 2026
Sep 11 Ministry of Justice: Enforcement proceedings to recover KZT 2.3 trillion from the operator of the Kashagan field (North Caspian Operating Company) will resume once the court returns the materials. Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan and the US will continue dialogue within the framework of the str...
Kazakhstan macro: the widening current account surplus to keep the tenge strong this year
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Sep 2026 · 1 response
With oil prices hovering around $100/bbl and future trends still uncertain, oil-producing countries have enjoyed extra revenues despite various disruptions to exports. Kazakhstan is one such country, with reduced oil production due to export issues via the CPC, its main oil export route. Still, w...