Kazakhstan macro: Medium-term growth should moderate, but become more sustainable

KAZAKHSTAN - Report 04 Nov 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

In the recent World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected Kazakh GDP growth at 4.4% for this year. In dollar terms, the Fund expected GDP to reach nearly $398 bln. Earlier, the country’s authorities anticipated GDP growth of over 5.0% in 2026 and aimed for faster economic expansion in the coming years. In 1H26, GDP rose 4.1% y-o-y, and the government’s estimate for 9M26 showed a 4.2% increase. The latter was only a preliminary figure, whereas the 1H26 number was officially confirmed by the Bureau of National Statistics. Monthly trends indicate no significant acceleration in 3Q26, with overall modest growth largely due to weak performance in 1Q26, when oil extraction and exports were limited by damage to the CPC oil terminal.

According to the IMF, Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita is expected to be around $19.3K, roughly on par with Russia’s $20.0K and well above China’s $15.4K. It would still be slightly below Turkey’s $21.1K, a country with a strong manufacturing sector. These figures raise questions about Kazakhstan’s potential to expand manufacturing beyond semi-product industries such as metals, or whether it can compete with countries such as China and Turkey. Car production has grown rapidly in recent years, but it’s mostly assembly from imported parts rather than full-cycle manufacturing. Overall, to diversify its economy and manufacturing, Kazakhstan would benefit from a weaker currency.

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