HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Is 390 the current officially preferred EURHUF rate?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Dec 2025
You know, it is a pretty common disease among analysts to see reason even where there is none. So, maybe we have just fallen prey to this pandemic this time. However, there may be still a story, a sort of conscious calculation to manage the EURHUF exchange rate, behind what we have seen most late...
The election race has become tighter
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Dec 2025
Tisza’s lead in the opinion polls has narrowed somewhat over the past month. This was not so much because Tisza might have lost momentum in its campaign, as it has just completed a successful primary vote to select MP candidates and is moving forward towards releasing a policy program by January....
The forward guidance has been changed at today's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025
The Council's last regular monthly rate-setting meeting in 2025 was held today. On this occasion, the Q4 inflation report was also discussed, the details of which will be presented by the MNB staff the day after tomorrow.On this occasion, the base rate and the corridor were left unchanged at 6.5%...
President Viktor Orbán?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2025
It looks like the forint market did not like today's Bloomberg article about PM Orbán's possible attempt to strengthen the currently pretty much powerless position of the President of the Republic, planning to take over that position before the election. We think that the presentation of the news...
Good news on consumer inflation in November
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Dec 2025
CPI-inflation for November has been reported at 0.1% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning. The year-on-year rate dropped quite substantially, from the previous 4.3%, and it fell into the MNB target range for the first time this year. Non-fuel inflation dropped to 4.6% yoy, i.e. by two decimal points from t...
Fitch Ratings' outlook on their BBB sovereign rating went from Stable to Negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2025
Fitch Ratings held the H2 review of their Hungary sovereign rating yesterday, also ending the late-in-the-year review season for the Top-3 rating agencies as regards 2025. The agency affirmed the government's BBB rating, but changed the outlook to Negative from Stable on this occasion: Fitch attr...
Hungary's supply of Russian crude oil is not affected by recent Ukrainian hit at the Druzhba pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025
On December 1, Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline system once again, causing an explosion and another break in the continuity of oil shipments. Subsequently, reports like the following one have appeared in the media: However, this does not appear to be correct. As widely known, Druzhba indeed t...
Another hurdle passed: Moody's affirmed its Baa2/Negative sovereign credit rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025
On Friday, November 28, Moody's affirmed its investment grade credit rating for the Hungarian government, despite fears that a negative rating decision may follow the most recent loosening up of fiscal targets for this year and 2026. There is only one rating review date still scheduled by a Top-3...
Puzzle of the month: Is Hungary exempt and protected?
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Nov 2025
Energy remains a key policy concern. On one hand, gas and oil import prices have fallen non-seasonally in recent weeks, generating a substantial terms-of-trade gain and invaluable support for the balance of payments. On the other hand, new US sanctions against leading Russian energy companies and...