HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
CPI-inflation up in October, largely in line with expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2026
The headline rate was 0.4% mom, 2% yoy, the latter up from 1.6% yoy in September. Core inflation rose to 2.1% yoy, non-fuel inflation ascended to 1.6% yoy, both up two decimal points from their readings in the previous month. Fuel prices rose by 3% mom, 11.3% yoy, up 9% over the past two months, ...
Further good news on industry and retail sales in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Nov 2026
Industrial output grew 0.9% mom, 7.8% yoy in September, the latter following +8.6% yoy in August. Thus output growth accelerated to 6.9% yoy in Q3 from 3.6% yoy in Q2, and it reached 4% yoy in January-September. The fixed base chart below (December 2010 = 100) shows a pretty good-looking upswing ...
Tisza's anticorruption drive received a further push forward today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Nov 2026
The National Assembly elected the new Prosecutor General today, after a relatively long period of impasse, because of initial disagreement between Tisza and the also new President of the Republic on who could be the right candidate for the job. This post had been empty since the previous chief pr...
A reasonably good GDP number, received by local analysts as a disappointment
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2026 · 1 response
Q3 2026 GDP growth has just been reported at 0.1% qoq, 1.5% yoy by KSH. This is a very preliminary number, estimated on the basis of a model, rather than measured and aggregated in a bottom-up manner. So the sectorial details and demand components are still missing at this point. This follows 1.8...
Orbán for UN Secretary-General: is this a joke?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2026
Well, it sounds like one, but may be it is not. The news comes from a WSJ article published two days ago, and we regard WSJ as way more serious than just inventing fake stories of this kind. Anyway, the article reported about a distinct US push in background diplomacy, to bring together a joint U...
No base rate change yesterday, new details revealed on the draft budget
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2026
Yesterday's Monetary Council meeting and Mr. Varga's post-meeting presentation almost became non-events, against the backdrop of the government's simultaneous presentation of the 2027 budget, consisting of an unusually long and detailed parliamentary speech by the Prime Minister two days ago, and...
Good news for today: fiscal deficit target set at 4.9% GDP, retail margin caps will be lifted
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2026
PM Magyar presented the Tisza's 2027 government budget in a two-hour parliamentary speech this afternoon, which he himself previewed the other day as one of his most important public appearances so far. Starting with the main point, the deficit target has been set at 4.9% of GDP, following the am...
The moment of truth is coming
HUNGARY · Forecast · 16 Oct 2026
At present, all eyes seem to be focused on the upcoming budget plan for 2027 and the macro roadmap for 2027-2030, all set to become publicly known next week. Investors will likely see a substantial reduction of the deficit target for next year, but they should not expect a miracle in that regard....
September CPI moderately below expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2026 · 1 response
As reported yesterday, the median analyst expectation for September headline CPI-inflation was 1.8% yoy, up from 1.3% in the previous month. But the actual figure was 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy only. Fuel prices indeed rose 5.9% mom, maybe a bit less than expected, but non-fuel inflation was actually -0....