HUNGARY
Analyst
Istvan Racz
Former Director, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Update: CPI-inflation in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024
Regarding our note on October's good-looking inflation data, unfortunately we have found no good explanation, official, anecdotal or anything, on KSH's reporting a 6.8% mom decrease of the prices of telephone and internet services. Simply speaking, we see no announcements, news, anecdotal reports...
Here is the actual October CPI-inflation data: lower than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024
The headline rate is reported at 0.1% mom, 3.2% yoy, materially below the expected 3.4% yoy (MNB, ourselves) and 3.5% yoy (analysts' median forecast - see yesterday's note). Perhaps more importantly, core inflation was only 4.5% yoy, rather than the 5% indicated in the MNB's forecast chart, on no...
Data preview for tomorrow: CPI-inflation expected to have risen materially in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2024
Here is once again the MNB's forecast chart from their latest post-meeting presentation of October 22, according to which the headline rate should go up to 3.4% yoy in October, from the cyclical low point (so far) of 3% in the preceding month: On this graph, the MNB also predicted 5% yoy core inf...
Monthly output and demand data for September substantiate weak Q3 GDP figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024
While Mr. Orbán appears to be absolutely delighted by the outcome of the US presidential election, the macro analyst is forced to be in a somewhat less enthusiastic mood today. Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, -5.8% yoy, making the Q3 yoy growth figure -5.4%, the worst so far this year. In Jan...
First reaction to this morning's report of horrendous preliminary Q3 GDP data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024 · 1 response
First the facts: Q3 real GDP growth on sda basis was reported by KSH as -0.7% qoq, -0.7% yoy, implying +0.7% yoy growth in the first three quarters of 2024. This was by 0.6%-point qoq, 1.1%-point yoy below the median analyst expectation (and even more below our own forecast, which happened to be ...
On the forint once again: no rate cut in November either?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2024
Well, with the forint still following a weakish trend and standing at EURHUF 405 today, it may be time to admit that the MNB's plan to stabilise the exchange rate and hold EURHUF back from running above the 400 line for any longer period, by skipping one month in its rate cutting series just does...
S&P affirmed its BBB-/Stable sovereign rating for Hungary yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2024
This was very much in line with our expectation, but apparently not so with everyone else's. The fact that EURHUF ran slightly above 404 (yes, this page can be found on the internet) ahead of the decision shows quite clearly just how much the government needs to watch its steps with regard to com...
Rates are held today, as expected: here are the key messages from the Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2024
The base rate was held by the Monetary Council unchanged at 6.5%, the corridor also remaining +/-1%-point around the base rate, as widely expected. This time around, Mr. Virág had left for the IMF/World Bank annual meeting, and so the post-meeting press/analyst conference was held by Csaba Kandrá...
Kind reminder: the MNB is likely to hold the base rate at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024
The Monetary Council is set to hold its monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. With EURHUF at 402, as we are writing this note, a rate cut is highly unlikely this time. This morning, Portfolio.hu published the results of its regular analyst poll. All twelve respondents expect that the Council wil...