ECUADOR
Analyst
Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
An uncertain electoral outlook given Noboa’s hits and misses
ECUADOR · Forecast · 21 Oct 2026
We recognize that President Noboa inherited a complex situation when he assumed his office in 2023. This included an unstable and vulnerable fiscal situation that endangered dollarization and an escalation in violence and organized crime that Ecuador had never before witnessed in its history. ...
The threat of nature
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2026
Experts from the European School of Political and Social Sciences (ESPOL) forecast there is a 75% probability that the severity of El Niño 2026 will reach the level of that of 1997-1998. In that event, losses amounted to 15% of GDP, affecting mainly productive sectors such as agriculture, livesto...
An opportunity to demonstrate statesman’s capabilities
ECUADOR · Forecast · 21 Aug 2026
President Noboa is obliged to maintain a difficult political equilibrium between Washington and China. He was officially invited to visit China by Xi Jinping, but while both Noboa and Trump have mentioned their excellent relations with Ecuador, and Noboa has visited Mar-a-Lago unofficially, he ha...
Decrees will not solve the problem
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Jul 2026
Unexpectedly, a few days ago, President Noboa issued Executive Decree 444, which contains a complicated reform to the methodology of setting prices for derivatives. The discontent of the public in May, when gasoline prices rose and scarcity was widespread, probably cautioned the president and his...
Ecuador after two and a half years of Noboa
ECUADOR · Report · 16 Jun 2026
President Noboa did not inherit an easy country to run. Creeping political instability during the year and a half of President Guillermo Lasso’s government, ending in his dismissal, prevented Ecuador from reaching its potential growth rate or recovering adequately from the crisis of Covid-19. ...
A fraught atmosphere
ECUADOR · Report · 21 May 2026
Since November 2023, President Daniel Noboa has made twenty changes in his ministerial cabinet. The Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Health have been the areas of greater rotation, at six ministers each. Immediately after his defeat last November in the public referendum, Noboa change...
President Noboa’s legacy
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2026
We are updating this report with a change to Graph 3, which shows amended household consumption data. We have written before that President Noboa single-handedly managed to lose nearly 30% of his popularity ratings in the first 10 months of his mandate due to controversial decisions and the la...
Facing the US, Colombia and Iran
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Mar 2026
Ever since the beginning of this year, Ecuador's external sector has been the epicenter of both good news and difficult news. In the good news, as of March 13 the government has a TRA (Trade Reconciliation Agreement) with the United States that could bring new revenues of approximately $1200 mill...
Sinking popularity
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Feb 2026
When Daniel Noboa launched the referendum in April 2024, his popularity was approximately 75%—the highest among any previous presidents. He maintained a good profile during the first months of his second mandate in 2025 but started to face the problems of a fractured and divided country by the su...