President Noboa’s legacy

ECUADOR - Forecast 20 Apr 2026 by Magdalena Barreiro

We have written before that President Noboa single-handedly managed to lose nearly 30% of his popularity ratings in the first 10 months of his mandate due to controversial decisions and the lack of a clear, statesmanlike view. However, he will leave an unquestionably beneficial legacy in the external sector thanks to the various trade agreements his government has been able to complete successfully. In addition, with the aid of the Constitutional Court (CC) (with whom he ended at odds in 2025), he opened an important door to facilitate foreign investment in Ecuador: in response to a request from President Noboa, the CC decided in recent days to issue a favorable opinion on the bilateral investment treaty signed with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Through an impeccably drafted sentence, the CC allows the present and future governments to continue with the policy of openness of recent years, negotiating new investment treaties that guarantee investors that their claims can be resolved through international arbitration tribunals. With this, the CC ends a nightmare of almost two decades inherited from Correismo.

On another topic, the local government elections, which were to be carried out in February 2027, were brought forward by the National Electoral Council to November of this year because of possible severe weather that may be caused by El Niño next year. National Electoral Council President Diana Atamaint, known for her political skill, defended the decision and, very arrogantly, warned the Constitutional Court not to interfere in electoral matters in which the Electoral Council has the last word.

Revolucion Ciudadana (RC) has not yet resolved its questions regarding electoral law financing, and if this date change materializes, the party may be precluded from participating in the upcoming elections. Additionally, the RC is going through internal turmoil that will leave it too weak to achieve the excellent results of 2023, even in the event of its participation. It remains to be seen if the CC abides by Atamaint’s warning, and if the ADN has the ability to capture the political space that might be left by the RC.

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