ARGENTINA
Analyst
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank PresidentDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Argentina’s improving macro outlook
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Oct 2024
In this report, we review the recent growth, inflation, trade and fiscal indicators. The recent macroeconomic activity indicators have shown an improvement, while the strengthening of the external (accrued) balances allows us to anticipate a relatively stable FX market, with an outlook of a likel...
The prospects for economic recovery for the fourth quarter and 2025
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Oct 2024 · 1 response
The past week has been particularly rich in macroeconomic information. The National Statistical Bureau (INDEC) published the main quarterly indicators (GDP, unemployment and the balance of payments) for the second quarter of 2024, together with the poverty indices for the first semester (1H24). I...
Webinar Replay - Argentina: Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Domingo Cavallo discussing Argentina's economic outlook in a conversation with Murilo Riccini, Bradesco BBI’s Andean & Argentinean Strategist. What are the strengths and weaknesses of Argentina’s fiscal adjustment? What is the d...
Talking points from the webinar "Upcoming triggers and remaining concerns"
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Sep 2024
Javier Milei started his presidency of Argentina with a strong condemnation of traditional politics, unions and professional corporations, and the role of the state as a resource allocator and redistributor of income and wealth. Once in office, he continued with the same rhetoric but sought to ma...
Ambitious official targets
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Sep 2024
President Javier Milei presented the 2025 budget proposal to the Chamber of Deputies. Normally, this procedure is carried out by the Minister of Economy, but this year the head of state wanted to do it personally to emphasize that balancing the fiscal accounts is the crucial goal of his economic ...
August CPI - The half-full/half-empty glass
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024
August National CPI inflation came in at 4.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive month with an inflation rate of close to 4%. While those monthly rates are the lowest since 2021, their result can still be read as a half-full/half-empty glass.Graph 1 On the positive side, It must be remembered th...
Inflation is declining, economic activity is slowly recovering but foreign reserves are depleting
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Sep 2024
Inflation has stabilized between 3% and 4% monthly, and the government anticipates a further decline. Economic activity is showing signs of a slow but promising recovery. Real wages for workers and retirees are improving, and consumer credit is beginning to reemerge. Furthermore, the governme...
Expecting July inflation
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2024
Despite the gradual liberalization of regulated prices, the government has focused on the reduction of the inflation rate as one of its most immediate and visible economic achievements. For this, it undertook, from its beginning, a demanding fiscal contraction, and a gradual elimination of the ce...
Anchoring exchange-rate expectations for further inflation slowdown
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 Jul 2024
During the last few weeks there has been very good news on the course of inflation. But two sets of side effects of the stabilization policy create doubts about its sustainability: the widening of the gap between the blue-chip swap rate (CCL) and the official exchange rate (which many observers i...