Explaining the Differences Between MECON’s Financing Program, Released Yesterday, and My Own Estimates Published Last Week

ARGENTINA - In Brief 07 Jul 2026 by Joaquin Cottani

---

As expected, the government yesterday released its financing program for 2026 and 2027 in response to strong market demand. While the announcement has helped assuage investor concerns about the administration’s ability to service debt maturing this year and next, it leaves some important questions unanswered—most notably, how the Central Bank will accumulate sufficient reserves to service both its own debt and that of the Treasury while simultaneously meeting the IMF’s net international reserve (NIR) accumulation targets, all without destabilizing the foreign exchange market, particularly if private demand for dollars increases. The key issue is that the program assumes there will be no need to access international capital markets this year or next, except through collateralized loans ($4 billion, to be arranged and issued this year) and other unidentified sources ($2 billion included in next year’s program). The authorities’ financing plan is summarized below: Table 1: National Treasury’s financing program for 2026 and 2027 Source: MECON. The first point to note is that the table does not include the Central Bank’s financing needs arising from BOPREAL or repos with international banks. This implicitly assumes that all outstanding BCRA liabilities will be refinanced beyond 2027, an assumption that is both realistic and already anticipated by the market. The second point that emerges from the table is that the Treasury plans to purchase $6.7 billion in 2026 and $4.9 billion in 2027 from the Central Bank using the pesos generated by its primary fiscal surplus. While it is entirely appropriate for the Treasury to use its primary surplus to repay public debt, this assumpti...