With inflation still high in June, the NBK will probably hold steady in July

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 01 Jul 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported a slight y-o-y inflation slowdown (to 10.3% from 10.4% in May), but m-o-m inflation ticked up to 0.8% from 0.7% in May, showing disinflation has nearly stalled since October 2025. Last year’s sharp base rate hike cooled the economy and slowed household credit growth, but its impact seems limited so far, with the annualized 6M moving average inflation hovering around 11%.Household credit growth, after easing late last year, picked up again in April and May compared to the 1Q26 average. The NBK commenting on the recent decision on the base rate also pointed to several other factors like higher government spending, which is likely to rise in the second half of 2026 as budget expenditures catch up, potentially adding inflation pressure. Even the tenge’s appreciation only modestly helped slow prices, leaving questions about how a future potential depreciation might play out. All signs suggest the NBK will keep rates unchanged when its Committee on Monetary Policy meets on July 24.