With $50 billion incoming, what’s next for Ukraine?

UKRAINE - In Brief 28 Oct 2024 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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G7 leaders have finalized a $50 billion loan agreement for Ukraine, backed by profits from frozen Russian assets, according to the G7 Finance Ministers' Statement on the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loan Initiative released on October 25. The funds will be fully disbursed to Ukraine between December 1, 2024, and December 31, 2027, in installments aligned with Ukraine’s urgent financing needs. The ERA loan and the Ukraine Facility will almost fully cover Ukraine's financial gap through the end of 2026. This arrangement was designed to secure the country's financial stability in the event of a Trump victory in the U.S. elections. Some speculate that Trump might attempt to derail the arrangement if elected, but given that the majority of Russian assets are immobilized in the EU, along with heightened risks for the EU if Trump takes office, it is unlikely the EU would withdraw from ERA even if the U.S. contribution is removed. In other words, these funds appear secure, boosting confidence in Ukraine’s ability to maintain resilience into 2025 and beyond. The question remains as to how the disbursement will be arranged and whether it will be linked to specific conditions. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s immediate reaction to the $50 billion loan announcement was to propose a "helicopter money" initiative, allocating UAH 1,000 (approximately $24) to every Ukrainian. This statement was poorly received and heavily criticized, but since it came directly from the President, we should assume it will be implemented regardless of the cost, as no authority in the country can effectively oppose Zelenskiy's decision. I assume this was an alarming signal for G7 leaders, like...