Waiting for the Man
Special points to highlight in this report:
* As we have come to expect in the past few months, September’s data release was disappointing, with the demand side struggling to keep pace with a not-especially-brisk supply side. Import growth was much weaker than export growth, and what little inflation we had was more than fully explained by rising food prices—due mainly to bad weather and poor agricultural performance.
* In late September markets were tantalized by promises of a significant fiscal stimulus over the rest of the year—with a substantial portion diverted to boost consumption directly—but as of yet there have been few concrete details and no promised numbers.
* I continue to believe we will see more concrete proposals in the next few weeks with real numbers and real spending plans, but only because I don’t see any other way to achieve this year’s GDP growth target. There is speculation everywhere, however, and until we get concrete proposals, we won’t know what kinds of stimulus spending we are likely to get.
Now read on...
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