Trump and China

CHINA ADVISORY - Report 07 Nov 2024 by Andrew Collier

While we don’t know the details of President-elect Trump’s plan for China, we can expect increased financial sanctions, higher tariffs, and a generally hostile climate toward trade and investment. These policies will heighten already sharp tensions within the Chinese economy and politics. The election reflected “political turmoil” that “revealed the state of American democracy,” Xinhua said, according to Politico. Xinhua pointed to weaknesses including a “debt-reliant federal government,” reproductive rights “splitting American society” and an economy that has “scapegoated newcomers” as some of the fault lines exposed in the election.

I foresee three major impacts on China over the coming Trump term:

- A focus on “techno-nationalism".
- Rising inability of the Chinese state to pay for Xi Jinping’s global and domestic ambitions.
- Increased pressure on China to rebalance the economy from industrial and technological development toward consumption.

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