TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian Dream in the driver's seat six months before the local elections

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 09 May 2025 by Ivan Tchakarov

Six months after the Oct Parliamentary vote, the post-election environment in Georgia has evolved in line with my (at the time) counter-consensus forecast, in which I argued before the ballot day: "In short, in my view, there will be a four-step process, including: 1) a simple majority win for Georgian Dream; 2) the opposition's claims that the elections have been rigged, with calls for massive public protests against the winner; 3) a resolute, but smart, response by law enforcement to violence; and 4) a gradual reduction in tensions as Georgia sets itself on a path of perceived isolation from the West, at least for the time being."

The next big event on the political horizon is the local elections that are scheduled to take place this October. The ruling Georgian Dream party has introduced changes in the electoral code that the opposition claims will tilt the chances in favor of the incumbent. The rifts in the opposition have become more visible with time as their post-election unity has become thinner due to their lack of success in challenging Georgian Dream. The opposition's decision on participation will significantly shape the elections' dynamics, as their absence could lead to an unchallenged election process for the ruling party. I argue that, either way, contesting or not the local elections will be immaterial at the current juncture given the paucity of ideas that the opposition has to offer and the mutual accusations between key opposition groups. Former President Zurabishvili has also failed to become the focal point of those who don't like Georgian Dream. As a result, I expect an easy win for GD, including because of the continued very robust economic momentum in the country.

I also argue, in line with my long-held and long-presented views, that Georgia, under the rule of the Georgian Dream, demonstrates a clear and strategically balanced pro-Western orientation, while avoiding a complete break with Russia. The key word here is balance. Tbilisi's foreign policy, as well as military exercises with NATO that took place in Tbilisi from Apr 28-May 8, show that the country is ready to actively cooperate with the West, but at the same time reserves its right to normal economic relations with Russia.

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