TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia's Pashinyan can still emerge victorious in next year's elections—against all odds
Armenia stands at a fork in the road as Premier Pashinyan promotes an agenda of "peace through concessions" as the central message to the electorate in the runup to the Jun 2026 parliamentary elections. With its provision for the acknowledgment of Nagorno-Karabakh as an Azerbaijani territory and the downplaying of classic national symbols, the policy offers individuals a very clear choice: stability or sovereignty. Whereas the majority of Armenians see such steps as capitulation and heavily disapproves of the current government and the Prime Minister, the ruling party's simple and clear message resonates with a war-weary public and one that is horrified at the prospect of its restart.
The opposition, on the other hand, has not been able to offer an equally coherent narrative, and the time for this is quickly running out. Its rhetoric continues to be obsessed with denouncing losses by the current government, but it has yet to provide credible responses to basic questions such as the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, TRIPP (the Zangezur corridor), foreign policy orientation, defense reform, and economic sustainability. As the old elites appear discredited and new forces such as Our Way are still inexperienced, the opposition remains fractured and unable to channel public outrage into a viable agenda of governance.
Prospectively, in the elections of 2026, two scenarios appear realistic: either Civil Contract retains power through successfully hammering home its "peace or no peace" slogan, or the policy-consolidation of the opposition into a well-organized force reshapes the political field. For Armenia's partners, both carry risks: constant reliance on concessions may not be sustainable and may undermine state sovereignty, while an inexperienced opposition may destabilize the situation further by embarking on uncertain irredentism.
In any case, in the absence of a viable and well-articulated vision by the opposition, the balance may currently be tilted in favor of Pashinyan—against all odds.
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