Too many tipping points

TURKEY - Report 22 Jun 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be forced to take sides.

The tipping point specific to Turkey is the June 30th trial concerning allegations of fraud in CHP’s previous-to-last Grand Convention, where Ozel toppled Kilicdaroglu. A vast majority of experts predict that CHP will be found remiss in running a clean convention. The party may be turned over to Kemal Kilicdaroglu, which would cause a minor confidence shock, or to a court (read: AKP) -appointed trustee, in which case the confidence shock would be reminiscent of Imamoglu’s arrest. The courts are undoubtedly under the sway of Erdogan, who recognizing the uncertain implications of Iran-Israel war, may instruct it to postpone the final session to autumn months, averting potential social arrest, though he has other options.

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