Economics: Third-quarter growth accelerates, but momentum is concentrated in a few sectors
Economic activity accelerated in July and August, and the timely third-quarter figures confirmed that GDP grew 3.2% YoY, with cumulative growth of 1.9% in the first nine months and a likely year-end close near 1.7%. Within the timely third-quarter GDP estimate, the tertiary sector grew 3.3% YoY, the secondary sector 3.1%, its highest figure since 2023, and the primary sector 1.8%, extending the rebound that began in the second quarter (1.9%) after 0.5% growth in the first. The momentum in construction, which maintained high annual increases, and in wholesale trade, for which the rebound after the 2025 decline and the temporary World Cup effect explain much of the advance in services, drove third-quarter growth, while manufacturing began to recover with the support of export-oriented branches.
On the demand side, gross fixed investment grew 6.0% in July, but private consumption lost strength amid weakness in overall services and lower consumption of imported goods. The labor market did not keep pace: employment fell -0.4% YoY in September and its growth in services is far below that of output, so the momentum is unlikely to be sustained in the fourth quarter.
Inflation rose to 3.45% in September and to 3.62% in the first half of October because of fruit and vegetable prices and government-authorized rates, with core inflation near 3.8% and with the core services component above 4%, which casts doubt on an early cut in Banxico's rate. In the external sector, exports, especially of electrical and electronic components, remained strong, although the trade balance posted a deficit of USD 606 million in September. Finally, the Infrastructure Investment Plan faces doubts about financing and legal certainty as the main obstacles to accelerating growth during the rest of Sheinbaum's administration.
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