The latest presidential poll shows that the race is statistically tied, the investigation into Lula’s son continues, and Caiado replaced his campaign strategist yesterday

BRAZIL POLITICS - Report 18 Aug 2026 by Murillo de Aragão and Cristiano Noronha

Yesterday, a new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election was released. It showed President Lula (PT) with 41% of first-round voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has 36%. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula is numerically ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, 47% to 44%. However, the race remains a statistical tie. Yesterday, the news site Metrópoles reported on an exchange of messages between lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger, who is under investigation for suspected involvement in the INSS fraud scheme, and Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as “Lulinha”, President Lula’s son. Lulinha is being investigated in three ongoing inquiries before the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) replaced his presidential campaign strategist yesterday. Paulo Vasconcellos left Caiado’s advertising team, which will now be led by political strategist Marcos Carvalho.

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