The government 2027-2029 economic outlook and budget plan suggests steady GDP growth in the years ahead

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 01 Sep 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

---

The Kazakh government has released its macroeconomic forecast for 2027-2029, along with aggregate republican budget figures and some data tied to the consolidated budget. Overall, the outlook seems reasonable, though the baseline scenario may be a bit optimistic, projecting steady GDP growth of 5.4%-5.5% in the coming years. For this year, the government expects 5.4% growth, following a 4.1% y-o-y increase in the 1H26 and assuming strong performance in 2H26. In contrast, the NBK’s recently published consensus forecast projects 4.6% GDP growth this year, 4.4% in 2027, and 4.3% in 2028, implying that market participants are more cautious. The government projects nominal GDP to reach KZT199.3 trln next year, with the medium-term outlook based on $70 per barrel oil prices in the coming years. Inflation is expected to decline to 7.5%-9.5% next year, while republican budget revenues could hit KZT25.6 trln in 2027, up from the 2026 target of KZT22.9 trln. These figures include transfers from the National Fund, which are planned to rise to KZT4.2 trln from the 2026 target of KZT3.6 trln. Expenditures are set to grow to KZT30.2 trln in 2027, marking a 14.9% increase from this year’s target. In nominal terms, the 2027 republican budget deficit will remain around KZT4.6 trln, roughly the same as this year, but will decrease as a percentage of GDP. While the targets appear optimistic, they are generally within reach. However, the decision to boost transfers from the National Fund again suggests that the 2026 VAT reform was somewhat overly ambitious, though largely successful. We’ll provide more details once more information on the 2027-2029 plans becomes available.