The dark political web

ECUADOR - Forecast 16 Jul 2024 by Magdalena Barreiro

The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future.

New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control (CPCCS) and the president of the Judicial Council (CJ) were elected after a fierce battle among the various political parties. The first council has the power to appoint control authorities such as the Comptroller General, and the second oversees judicial processes and the performance of judges at all levels.

After this past week’s elections, the majority of CPCCS will be split between members aligned with Noboa and others who are part of the many tentacles of Revolucion Ciudadana. The elected president of the CJ, Mario Godoy, is a controversial figure who has transited through the governments of Correa, as well as Noboa, raising doubts as to which power he might respond.

Legislators have suspended the political impeachments of members of the government of President Guillermo Lasso in order to open space to impeach two of Noboa’s ministers, Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabriela Sommerfeld and Minister of the Interior Monica Palencia. Both impeachments are related to the incursion of government forces into the Embassy of Mexico and the capture of Vice President Jorge Glas. Sommerfeld’s impeachment—almost a sure thing—could have an impact on the decision by the International Court of Justice on the international dispute between Mexico and Ecuador.

In the middle of these questions, the campaign for 2025 continues, and political groups have until mid-August to present their candidates. The panorama appears similar to that of previous elections, with parties “loaning” names linked to other groups, and/or candidates looking to be chosen by a political party.

So far, the candidates are Daniel Noboa from ADN, Gustavo Jalkh for the Correistas (he was Correa’s personal secretary and president of CJ in that government), Leonidas Iza from Pachakutik, Pedro Granja for the Socialist Party, and Andrea Gonzalez (ex-Construye) who will run for Sociedad Patriotica, Lucio Gutierrez’s party. Construye has chosen Henry Cucalon, who was Minister of the Interior under Guillermo Lasso and has been linked, until now, to the Social Christians, and Jorge Escala–a lifetime leader of the teachers’ union–will run for the former communist party. The Social Christians have not decided on a candidate yet, and Jan Topic, who had declined the proposition, again seems a possibility.

Therefore, the Correistas will most probably split votes with Iza, Granja, and Escala, while Noboa will share his political spectrum with whomever runs for the Social Christians. Gonzalez and Cucalon might take votes away from both candidates but could probably be a more serious obstacle for Noboa in the first round of the election.

In the meanwhile, Ecuadorians continue to feel vulnerable to the insecurity and violence of organized crime and to the fragility of the Ecuadorian electricity sector. While the former is a problem that will not go away overnight, the latter might see better days after CELEC approved a regulation that allows public-private investment alliances for the sector.

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