Economics: Sheinbaum's new investment plan lacks the foundations to achieve sustainable economic growth
In early February, President Claudia Sheinbaum presented the Investment Plan for Development with Well-being, which would involve a total amount of $5.6 trillion MX pesos (close to $325.4 billion USD) to be executed between 2026 and 2030. Of that amount, in 2026 $722 billion MX pesos in additional physical investment beyond the budgeted amount would be allocated. The investment would be channeled into eight strategic sectors, distributed as follows: 54.1% to energy, 15.6% to trains, 13.9% to highways, 6.5% to ports, 6.2% to health, 2.8% to water, and 0.34% to education. However, some projects would require private sector participation, and several projects that were already planned prior to the announcement were merely added to inflate the figure.
Most importantly, this plan will not be effective in triggering economic growth unless determining factors that have inhibited private investment are addressed, such as the weakness of the rule of law and the absence of legal certainty. Additionally, the plan proposes no mechanisms for the social, economic, or financial evaluation of projects to determine the prioritization of sectors or the viability of the projects. For example, high importance is given to railway transport projects to the detriment of other high-impact areas such as health, water, and education, among others that could actually impact economic growth in the long run. This week's Economic Outlook analyzes the main implications of the announced Investment Plan.
Regarding last week's indicators, it was reported that in December 2025, retail sales registered an increase of 4.0% YoY based on seasonally adjusted figures, while wholesale sales showed a variation of -1.7%. Consequently, in full-year 2025, retail sales rebounded by 2.6%, compared to a contraction of -0.8% in 2024, while wholesale sales registered a cumulative decrease of -5.3% in 2025 versus -5.7% in 2024. The latest retail figures indicate that consumption presumably reached its "floor" between the second and third quarters of 2025 and began a moderate recovery thereafter.
Furthermore, it was reported that in December 2025, the income (sales) of private non-financial companies from the provision of services increased by 1% YoY on a seasonally adjusted basis. On a monthly basis, the variation was negative (-0.7%). Consequently, for the year as a whole, service income increased by 2.6% compared to 4% in 2024. By subsector, in 2025 five registered positive growth: business support services showed the highest increase, followed by health services—largely associated with the severe deterioration of public services, which in turn boosted private sector income—real estate services, recreational services and educational services.
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