Shape of things to come
The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on CHP and its presumptive presidential candidates. The longer term is much harder to model, because there is no clear end game for Erdogan, whose sole objective remains to regain eligibility.
While he will probably stamp down CHP and street protests, this would be a Pyrrhic victory, which reduces his chances of finding a partner to write a new constitution or call early elections. The essay describes Erdogan’s three options and their weaknesses. As dismaying as it sounds, Erdogan’s end game may be to find a pretext to delay elections beyond 2028.
Manufacturing sector PMI has weakened again in March, continuing its lackluster performance through the first quarter of the year. That said, it fared slightly better than in Q4 of last year, which also doesn’t necessarily correspond to “contraction” in Turkey’s case.
Now read on...
Register to sample a report