Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 12 Nov 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The ruble slipped slightly at the start of November following Minfin’s announcement to ramp up hard currency purchases for the National Wealth Fund under the fiscal rule. Authorities plan to spend R15.6 bln in November (the highest since 2026), compared to R12.7 bln in October. These operations could have been larger, but the government maintains a generous policy on the damper, with payments exceeding R400 bln in October. Falling oil prices will likely reduce FX purchases under the budget rule by year-end. Starting January 1, 2027, the oil price cutoff in the budget rule will drop from $59 to $50 per barrel, which should boost foreign exchange purchases from February and pressure the exchange rate. Long-term OFZ yields moved closer to 16.75–16.80% amid active government issuance. Minfin seeks to maximize demand through fixed-rate bond placements, aiming to limit floating-rate issuance, which increases interest rate risk on the balance sheet. With an ambitious borrowing program for 2027 and no prospects for a key rate cut in the coming months, yields are expected to remain in the 16.5–17.0% range for the foreseeable future. In the seven days ending November 9, consumer price inflation was 0.12% w-o-w, pushing the YTD index to 6.33%, while MTD inflation came in at 0.11%. Inflationary pressure has generally stayed moderate following the indexation of regulated tariffs in October, especially since the previous week ending November 2 saw deflation of 0.04% w-o-w. However, the year-end budget spending spree is expected to add more pressure to consumer prices, as in November and December the federal budget must spend about R10.1 trln from the revised R48.5 trln 2026 plan, re...