Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 11 Jun 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

The FX market saw sharp swings in early June, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 5% after the Finance Ministry announced it was boosting hard currency purchases under the fiscal rule from R110 bln in May to R208 bln in June. The ruble’s slide didn’t last long though, as it regained most of its value within a week. The next key development will be the CBR’s early July announcement on the scale of “mirroring” operations for 2H26, which will depend on National Wealth Fund investment volumes in 1H26. At the moment, the CBR is selling R4.6 bln of hard currency daily, but fundamentally the market is driven by exporters, who ramped up FX sales in April and May to about $30 bln compared with $15 bln in February–March.

For graphs and updates on the ruble, bank liquidity, OFZs, equities, inflation and rate expectations, please read our report.

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