Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 23 Jul 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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Minfin has decided to delay all primary OFZ placements until “market conditions improve.” The situation might change in the second half of September, when the government is expected to present the 2027–29 budget draft, potentially easing concerns over the deficit and its inflationary impact in the years to come. Investors are also looking for more clarity on the CBR’s inflation outlook and possible monetary policy adjustments. Until then, no primary OFZ supply is likely in the coming weeks, which could support consolidation in the secondary market. Ten-year OFZs may settle in the 16.00–16.25% range. Since early July, the RUONIA rate has stayed above the key rate as the money market shifted from a structural surplus to a deficit, driving up demand for CBR refinancing. A year ago, total market funding was around R1 trillion; now it exceeds R3 trillion, raising financing costs for corporates. The liquidity shortage could also increase FX supply domestically, as exporters react to higher ruble funding costs. Rosstat reported weekly inflation at 0.17% for the seven days ending July 20, unchanged from the previous week. Inflation was higher at the start of the month. As of July 20, MTD inflation was 0.60% and YTD was 4.82%, both above last year’s levels for similar periods. Seasonal factors like the harvest may slow inflation in the coming weeks, but in 4Q26 it will likely remain high amid probable upward revisions to budget spending, keeping the CBR cautious for now.