Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 06 Aug 2026 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The ruble has slipped over 3% in the past two weeks - a move that might seem healthy from a macroeconomic standpoint but feels less so on the ground. Several factors could explain this. Export revenues for Russian companies have probably dropped amid volatile oil prices and lower volumes of refined oil exports. At the same time, imports may already be on the rise and could grow further as Russia begins importing petroleum from abroad. On top of that, investors remain cautious about future geopolitical developments and are moving part of their assets out of the country. As a result, the ruble’s correction could persist for several weeks, especially since Minfin, under the fiscal rule, announced an increase in FX purchases in August by R1.1 billion per day. Minfin’s decision to delay all primary OFZ placements until market conditions improve, combined with the CBR’s 25 bps key rate cut, helped the FI market rebound from recent lows. The 10Y OFZ yield fell from 16.4–16.5% to 15.6–15.7% over two weeks. Still, demand for ruble bonds doesn’t seem strong enough for Minfin to resume primary auctions for fixed-rate papers. To address this, the government may consider issuing floating-rate bonds, possibly as early as September. Until then, long-term OFZ yields will likely stay in the 15.6–16.0% range. The week ending August 3 was deflationary, with CPI down 0.02% w-o-w. Inflation MTD stands at 4.84%, compared to 3.94% over the same period in 2025, when seasonal deflation in August hit 0.4% m-o-m. The CBR now faces a tricky choice: there’s pressure to cut the key rate, but inflation remains higher than last year and the risk of acceleration in the fall is high, especially as budg...